Ted Cruz warns Republicans: AOC "could win" the White House in 2028 - Newsweek

Republican Senator Ted Cruz has predicted that Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York could become her party's presidential nominee in 2028, warning the GOP not to assume she would lose in a general election.

The Texas senator made the comments while discussing the Michigan Senate race involving Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that an El-Sayed victory over Republican Mike Rogers would undermine one of the central arguments likely to be made against Ocasio-Cortez in a presidential primary—that she is too progressive to win nationally.

“If El-Sayed wins, the Democrat nominee for president in 2028 will be AOC,” Cruz said Wednesday while campaigning for Republicans in Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan. “In the primary, the number one argument against AOC is she’s too extreme to win the general.”

No candidates, including Ocasio-Cortez, have yet formally declared 2028 presidential campaigns.

The Michigan contest is among the most closely watched Senate races of the midterms, pitting El-Sayed, a progressive, against the former House lawmaker Rogers in a state that has emerged as a key presidential battleground. The midterms outcome could also factor into the broader debate over whether progressive Democrats can win statewide in other competitive states.

Cruz argued that an El-Sayed victory in Michigan could be cited as evidence that voters would back a similarly progressive candidate nationally.

He also cautioned Republicans against assuming an Ocasio-Cortez nomination would guarantee a GOP victory.

“We’re a divided country,” Cruz said, pointing to self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s political success in New York City as an example of an outcome he suggested many voters would once have considered unlikely.

“Look, if she is the nominee, she could win,” Cruz said.

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale urged caution about drawing conclusions this far from the next presidential election. “From Trump winning twice to what is looking like a potentially wild midterm, with different kinds of Democrats winning in all kinds of states and districts, everyone needs to head into 2028 with a big dose of humility about what voters are looking for,” he told Newsweek via email Wednesday.

Vale added that it is too early to know which prospective candidate would be best positioned for 2028, describing the presidential primary process as a “long and grueling crucible.”

Newsweek has reached out to Ocasio-Cortez's office via email on Wednesday afternoon for comment.

Prediction markets currently place Ocasio-Cortez among the leading contenders for the 2028 presidential election. An average of Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt prices gave Republican Vice President JD Vance an 18.7 percent implied chance of winning the presidency, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8 percent, California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom at 10.9 percent, Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff at 9.6 percent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Republican, at 9.5 percent.

Early primary polling, however, presents a more divided picture. While Ocasio-Cortez remains part of a crowded prospective Democratic field, Vance has emerged as an early Republican front-runner, leading a recent New York Times/Siena survey with 33 percent support among GOP voters—10 points ahead of Rubio.

Cruz has also entered the 2028 conversation, though odds comparison and polling aggregators reflect a steeper climb. Oddschecker gives Cruz about a 2 percent implied chance of securing the Republican nomination, while the latest RealClearPolling primary average places his support at 2.8 percent.

Although Cruz noted in August that "it's no secret that I want to be president," he has not formally announced a 2028 campaign.

Cruz also escalated his criticism of El-Sayed, saying the Michigan Democrat could pose a national security risk if he is elected to the Senate and subsequently appointed to the Intelligence Committee.

“If I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result,” Cruz said.

El-Sayed has denied having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Some governments have designated the organization or particular branches as terrorist groups. In an interview with NBC that aired October 15, he rejected allegations about both himself and his family.

“I have no ties. We have no ties,” El-Sayed said. Asked about alleged connections involving his mother, he said: “I have never had these conversations with my mother. I wasn't raised by my mother.”

El-Sayed, who was born in Michigan in 1984 to Egyptian immigrant parents and raised by his father and American stepmother, also questioned why he was being asked to answer for purported activity dating to the 1970s.

“You're using hearsay evidence from a tweet,” he said, dismissing the allegations as “just not serious.”

Cruz, during the campaign event, said that El-Sayed could potentially alert suspected terrorists if he gained access to classified intelligence about planned U.S. operations.

"We have every reason to believe that Abdul El-Sayed, if he found out that they're about to apprehend these terrorists, that he would let those terrorists know," Cruz continued.

In response to Cruz's remarks, El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Cole Wozniak told Newsweek, “Ted Cruz is a deeply unpopular politician who has long supported policies that hurt Michigan families, including voting to cut healthcare for hundreds of thousands of Michiganders."

Wozniak continued, "His dangerous comments are just the latest example of Mike Rogers and his MAGA allies attempting to distract voters from the fact that the price of gas, groceries, and everything else has skyrocketed due to the failed policies of the Trump administration.”

A WDIV-TV/Detroit News poll released Tuesday found El-Sayed leading Rogers by 6.3 points among likely voters, 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent, with 3.6 percent undecided.

The Glengariff Group surveyed 600 likely voters from October 19 to October 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. El-Sayed also had a higher favorable rating than Rogers, 42.2 percent to 32.2 percent.

Other recent polling suggests a tighter race.

An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted October 21 to October 22 had El-Sayed ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, while a Marist poll conducted October 15 October 18 put his lead at 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters.

Michigan is just one of a number of 2026 battlegrounds for control of the Senate, including a key race in Cruz's home state of Texas.

Democrats must defend their seats, including in Michigan, and flip 4 GOP-held seats to take the majority in the upper chamber.

Cook Political Report rates the Michigan race as a toss up. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it as Lean Democrat.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.