Test for Congress comeback in Nagaon Lok Sabha bypoll

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believes that winning the by-election to the Muslim-majority Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency in central Assam would pave the way for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to bag all 126 Assembly seats in the State in 2031.

Nagaon votes on Tuesday (October 6, 2026). Post-delimitation in 2023, more than 55% of the constituency’s 19 lakh voters are Muslims, a “vote bank” the Congress has allegedly relied on for decades.

The bypoll, however, could be more of a test for the Congress than the BJP because of a perceived split in the Opposition votes.

The Congress seeks to retain Nagaon after losing two-time winner Pradyut Bordoloi to the BJP ahead of the April 2026 Assembly election. The resignation of Mr. Bordoloi, who had ended the BJP’s four-election winning run from 1999 to 2014, necessitated the bypoll.

The grand old party is relying on former MLA Sibamoni Bora to stave off the challenge from BJP candidate Devasish Sharma, who was the Nagaon District Commissioner and District Election Officer until his resignation on September 3.

A bigger challenge for Ms. Bora is likely to be Mohammed Badruddin Ajmal, an MLA and chief of the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). His party is believed to have a sizeable number of supporters among the Muslims, particularly Bengali-speaking or Bengal-origin migrants, although the AIUDF’s hold in minority-dominated areas is seen to be slipping.

In August, the AIUDF had announced that former All Assam Minority Students’ Union president Rejaul Karim Sarkar would be its candidate for Nagaon. The party’s sudden decision to field Mr. Ajmal instead is believed to have thrown a spanner into Congress’s electoral calculations.

State Congress president Gaurav Gogoi made it apparent that Mr. Ajmal’s entry was a BJP plan to dent his party’s prospects by splitting the Opposition votes.

The Nagaon parliamentary seat comprises eight Assembly constituencies, five in Nagaon and three in adjoining Morigaon districts. Fifteen candidates are vying for the seat, but the contest here is expected to be among Ms. Bora, Mr. Sharma, and Mr. Ajmal.

The bypoll results will be declared on October 9.

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