Texas Senate race takes new turn post-GOP convention, poll shows - USA Today

The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is only heating up after the GOP midterm convention in early September.

A new Sept. 13 SoCal Strategies poll showed Talarico now leads Paxton 50% to 45%, a 5-point margin.

The poll surveyed 649 likely voters from Sept. 12-13 and showed a flip from SoCal's June poll, which had Paxton leading by 2 points.

Here's a breakdown of the poll's findings and how it compares with other polls.

The SoCal September poll showed that Talarico's lead among independents grew from 10% to 45% and he is now picking up 12% of Republicans. Talarico has also expanded his advantage with Hispanic voters from 10% to 38%, and voters aged 18-29 also back Talarico by 46%. 

Meanwhile, Paxton has maintained most of his lead among white voters.

But the poll also noted that while Talarico is polling at 50%, some evidence suggests the margin could tighten — much like the last poll, as Republicans are less decided than Democrats.

For example, while 6% of respondents who backed Donald Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the Texas Senate race, only 1% of those who say they voted for Kamala Harris are undecided.

"To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today," the poll analysis stated.

This is the latest poll in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 3.

An AARP poll on Sept. 10 showed Talarico with a 48% to 44% lead over Paxton, while an N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll showed Talarico with an edge at 48% to 43% in the Texas Senate race.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.