Thanksgiving gas prices headed down, but still at record high - USA Today

This Thanksgiving you may be thankful for a break at the gas pump on your holiday road trip.

Gas prices have dipped recently, with the national average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline at $3.94 on Nov. 11, down from $4.36 last month – but up from $3.07 this time last year, according to AAA.

Throughout 2026, gas prices have been a major concern for consumers with the price of regular gas up about 32%, and diesel fuel up 63%, since the United States attacked Iran on Feb. 28, according to AAA data.  

High gas prices fueled President Donald Trump's unpopularity – his net approval by the midterms had fallen almost 20 percentage points since the beginning of the year. Subsequently, the cost of living contributed to the Nov. 3 election's blue wave, which gained Democrats' control of Congress.

Gas prices will be top of mind as Thanksgiving week approaches with many travelers expected to hit the road – last year, a record 82 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles over the Thanksgiving holiday, AAA estimated.

While gas prices will be lower, the national average on Thanksgiving will still be the highest ever on record, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, projected.

The previous record highs for Thanksgiving Day fuel prices were in 2022, when regular gas was $3.56 per gallon and diesel was $5.25. Currently, the price per gallon of regular is $3.95 and diesel, $6.13, according to AAA.

GasBuddy has the national average price of a gallon of regular at a slightly lower price and it "might drop into the $3.70s, maybe the $3.60s," De Haan told USA TODAY. Diesel will probably fall below $6 by Thanksgiving," he said.

Still, "it's probably going to be the most expensive Thanksgiving ever at the gas pump," De Haan told USA TODAY.

He expects the Thanksgiving Day national average will be 75 cents to $1 lower than the 2026 peak prices on Sept. 24 when diesel hit a high of $6.52 and regular was about $4.47.

Historically, gas prices have fallen from mid-September to mid-November over the last 21 years, with the only exceptions after a 2019 attack on Saudi Arabian oil processing facilities, then in 2021 with post-COVID demand, and in 2022, when OPEC cut production to halt dropping oil prices.

Domestically, gas prices typically decline in the fall due to weakening demand. "The average temperatures go down, and gasoline demand slowly continues to decline right alongside the temperature," De Haan said. "There's less opportunity to get outside and go do things outside. So it's a drop in demand that continues through the heart of the winter."

Meanwhile, the Trump administration hasn't escalated tensions with Iran "and that is giving some optimism to the market that maybe you know there won't be as much disruption. More oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is boosting exports. OPEC is boosting exports," De Haan said. "So, you know, all in all, a lot of things going right. A lot of it is seasonal, but some of it geopolitical as well."

Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads (mikegsnider), Bluesky (@mikegsnider.bsky.social), X (@mikesnider) and email him msnider@usatoday.com.