This Texas midterm race has huge stakes, both for Donald Trump and the country - CBC

U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, at a campaign rally in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday. (Annie Rice/The Associated Press)Social SharingIn the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, no race has more at stake than the battle to become the next senator for Texas.

The contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico matters for Americans across the U.S., as the outcome could determine which party holds a majority in the Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.

"If we lose Texas, we're going to lose the country," Paxton has told the Republican faithful at numerous campaign rallies.

The stakes are particularly significant for Trump, since all the reasons the Republicans risk losing in Texas trace directly back to him.

Trump pointedly inserted himself into the Texas race from the start by endorsing the scandal-ridden Paxton to become the Republican candidate over long-serving incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

Paxton's sketchy ethical record, sky-high prices for gas and diesel triggered by Trump's war on Iran and heavy-handed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactics are all driving what appears to be a dramatic shift in voter sentiment.

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No Texas Democrat has been elected to the U.S. Senate since 1988, the year before Talarico was born. Despite that history, and despite Trump carrying Texas by 13 percentage points just two years ago, polling averages suggest a Democrat win this time is a distinct possibility.

Paxton's campaign is based on low taxes, cracking down on illegal immigration and supporting Trump's agenda. Talarico's key themes include stopping cuts to health-care funding, imposing term limits on members of Congress and shifting the tax burden from the middle class to corporations and the wealthy.

Both candidates have described the consequences of the election in monumental terms, frequently depicting their opponent as extreme. 

The race "isn't just red versus blue," Paxton told a recent rally in the Dallas suburb of Allen. "It's the America our founders gave us versus something they would never recognize.”

"Ken Paxton is everything that's wrong with our politics," countered Talarico later that same day at a rally in Fort Worth. "We are running against the most corrupt politician in Texas."

The corruption cloud hanging over Paxton, the state's attorney general since 2015, includes a grand jury indictment for securities fraud and impeachment in the Texas House for abusing his office to help a political donor. (The fraud charge was eventually dropped after he struck a plea deal, and the Texas Senate declined to convict following his impeachment.)

Voters attend a joint midterm election rally in Weslaco, Tex. on Oct. 25 for three Democratic Party candidates: James Talarico for the U.S. Senate, Bobby Pulido for the U.S. House and Gina Hinojosa for state governor. (Michael Gonzalez/The Associated Press)

Paxton casts Talarico — a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who has served in the state legislature since 2019 — as a dangerous, leftist radical.

"A vote for James Talarico is not just a vote for his radical agenda," Paxton told the Allen rally. "It's a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward right now.”

Paxton's backers go even further in their rhetoric.

Lydia Elizondo, the Republican running for district attorney in the South Texas county of Hidalgo County, introduced Paxton at a rally last week.

"We cannot let evil win," Elizondo told the crowd. "That evil has a name, and its name is James Talarico."

One tangible sign of the high stakes: The Senate race in Texas is poised to become the single-most expensive non-presidential campaign in U.S. history.

Spending on advertising by the candidates, parties and corporate-funded political action committees since the Texas primaries began has surpassed $500 million US, according to data compiled by the firm AdImpact.

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Much of that spending has been bankrolled by one rich Texas resident who also happens to be the wealthiest man on Earth.

Two of Elon Musk's political action committees have funneled more than $210 million US to help the Paxton campaign, according to election finance filings.

The Musk-funded ads are primarily aimed at motivating Republicans to vote by invoking culture-war fears about the consequences of a Talarico win.

One ad claims Talarico wants "taxpayer-funded sex-change surgeries on kids." Another claims he backs "putting parents in jail if they do not support surgically transitioning their children." Talarico has rejected the accusations as lies.

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The Democrat has in turn made Musk's investments in the Paxton campaign part of his argument to voters.

"Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat," Talarico said as the Fort Worth crowd booed the name of the SpaceX and Tesla CEO.

James Talarico, the Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, speaks at a campaign rally in Fort Worth on Oct. 19. (Mike Crawley/CBC)

"But on November 3rd, we will deliver a crystal-clear message to the world's first trillionaire. We will let Elon Musk know that Texas is not for sale."

Advance turnout figures provide some evidence the Democrats' messaging may be working more effectively than the Republicans'.

During the first week of early voting in Texas, people who'd previously voted in a Democratic Party primary slightly outnumbered those who'd voted in a Republican primary, a scenario that a Republican political consultant described as unprecedented.

At a polling station in the South Texas city of Edinburg, first-time voter Laysha Chavez said the key factor driving her decision was the way ICE deportations have separated families who've lived in the U.S. for many years.

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"Seeing that happen really breaks my heart because you never know who it could be next. It could be your friend; it could someone close to you," Chavez, a biology student, told CBC News.

There's a range of polling evidence suggesting that Hispanic voters in Texas, who swung toward Trump in record numbers in 2024, have soured on Republicans in 2026.

Also in Edinburg last week, Paxton drew around 100 people to an evening rally, including Ruben Martinez, who said he supports the Republican Party in part for how it deals with illegal immigration.

"It's like, right now here, we're waiting in line to get in," Martinez told CBC News outside the venue. "So it's not fair that somebody just comes out of nowhere and goes straight to the door and maybe fills up the last seat."

While polling suggests pocketbook issues such as the price of gas and diesel are top of mind for midterm voters, those who back either Paxton or Talarico often bring up values as the chief motivator of their support.

Daniel Mitchell attended the Talarico rally in Fort Worth wearing a black T-shirt with the words "I'm a Talafreako," co-opting the derisive nickname that Trump and others have used for the Democrat.

"I think what [Talarico] is doing for Texas is great, how he presents an idea that we can have a change that uplifts everyone," Mitchell told CBC News.

Mitchell's view of the Republican candidate? "Paxton's a fraud," he said. "Just down to his personal life and the policies he's supporting, you can tell that he sells out for whatever makes him happiest in the moment."

After Paxton's rally in the Dallas suburb of Allen, supporters wrote messages on his campaign bus. (Mike Crawley/CBC)

Paxton's personal life came under public scrutiny last year when his wife, a Texas state senator, filed for divorce, citing "biblical grounds" and accusing him of adultery.

Neither that nor the corruption allegations sway the Christians who are among Paxton's most ardent backers.

At Paxton's rally in Allen, attendees wrote messages of support on the campaign bus, many on Christian themes.

Mardi Day, a resident of nearby Plano, chose "Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord" as her message.

"I believe that's how the United States is going to stay a strong nation, by following Jesus Christ and our Constitution," Day told CBC News.

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Another rally attendee, Gloria Jones, said her top political priority is undoing what she called a "massive immigration problem" from Arab countries.

"How are we going to get rid of all these radical Muslims?" Jones said. "They want to practise Sharia, they need to go back to their country and practise there."

Steve Ceh is a pastor at Solomon's Porch Ministries in New Braunfels, Tex., and a member of Pastors for Paxton, a group of 27 Christian leaders who endorsed the Republican candidate. (Mike Crawley/CBC)

Steve Ceh, pastor of Solomon's Porch Ministries in New Braunfels, a city of 120,000 near San Antonio, is one of 27 Pastors for Paxton, a statewide group of Christian leaders praying for the Republican candidate.

"Every man that runs and every woman that runs is a flawed person," Ceh said when asked by CBC News to describe Paxton's positive traits. "So we look beyond the personality of that person and we vote policy, and he is directly in line with Christian values."

Ceh criticizes Talarico for what he calls a "severe leftist ideology" that can't co-exist with biblical principles.

"In Texas, when you start to threaten people's beliefs, values, they're going to go out and vote," he said. "[Talarico] will not win in Texas. I'm not even worried about it."

Trump, however, is worried enough about it that he has travelled to four cities in Texas since Oct. 1 to urge the MAGA faithful to get behind Paxton and raising the spectre that Democrat control of Congress would mean "communists" in power.

"You have to vote for Ken," Trump told a rally in Corpus Christi on Tuesday. "Otherwise, all of the great things we've done are going to change very quickly."

Mike Crawley is a correspondent for CBC News, based in Washington. He began his career as a newspaper reporter in B.C., spent six years as a freelance journalist in various parts of Africa, then joined the CBC in 2005. Mike reported on Ontario politics for 15 years. He was born and raised in Saint John, N.B.