Trump and Xi may extend their truce, but Canada still faces a rare earth squeeze - National Post

Chinese President Xi Jinping with U.S. President Donald Trump at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Sept. 23, 2026. Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty ImagesArticle contentWASHINGTON, D.C. — Trade tensions are becoming a familiar problem for Washington and this week President Donald Trump is putting his deal-making skills to the test as he hosts China’s president at the White House.

Xi Jinping arrived in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, and he and Trump will hold talks on Thursday. They are expected to discuss Iran, Taiwan, and AI safety standards, but the main focus will be on trade — and particularly U.S. access to Chinese rare-earth magnets and processed materials that also feed Canadian supply chains.

The summit comes nearly a year after Xi and Trump forged a trade truce in Busan, South Korea, suspending selected retaliatory measures — including some Chinese export controls on rare-earth magnets and critical materials — and reducing some U.S. tariffs.

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Now, that truce is set to expire on Nov. 10, and Trump is seeking an economic victory ahead of November’s midterms. He also must ensure the continued flow of Chinese rare-earth exports to U.S. manufacturers.

Canadian leaders will be watching for any sign of a deal, but trade analysts say Ottawa is likely to lose either way, whether Xi and Trump fail or succeed in coming to an agreement. A collapsed truce could disrupt Canadian manufacturers that rely on Chinese magnets and processed rare earths, while an extension could bring short-term stability but leave Canada dependent on Chinese supply. An extended truce would also leave Canada exposed to a wider U.S.-China trade deal that diverts sales and investment to the U.S.

“No matter what happens, the Canadians are going to be in a position [where] they’re worried about how much of the piece of the pie they’re going to lose,” said Stephen Nagy, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

China, pushing for greater stability, wants to extend the truce until the end of the Trump presidency, while the White House is pushing for just a six-month extension.