“Trump Faces a Do-or-Die Midterm…War with Iran Has a Mid-June Red Line” - 경향신문

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Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Grassroots Conference, is interviewed at the Kyunghyang Shinmun in Jung-gu, Seoul, on May 19. Senior Reporter Kim Jeong-geun

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating has sunk to its lowest level since his return to power. In a poll conducted May 15-18 and released on the 19th by Reuters, commissioned to Ipsos, Trump's approval stood at 35%. In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted May 11-15, his approval was 37%. After setting a second-term low of 34% (announced April 28, Reuters/Ipsos), it remains below the often-cited 40% floor for a president's approval. Despite the diplomatic event of his first visit to China in nine years (May 13-15), there was no rebound. As the war with Iran drags on, rising oil prices and other factors are hardening anti-Trump sentiment in the United States.

How long will President Trump keep the war going? Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC), said, “For Trump, he cannot avoid wrapping up this war by early to mid-June at the latest.” Around then, the campaign for the November midtermsTrump's “do-or-die election”will enter full swing, and continuing a war leaves him with no path to victory. Kim has spent more than 30 years in voter-mobilization work in New York's Korean community and has advocated for the rights of Korean Americans before the U.S. Congress; he is regarded as an expert on congressional politics. We met Kim at the Kyunghyang Shinmun in Jung-gu, Seoul, on May 19 to hear his views on recent changes in the United States and strategies for relations with Washington.

Kim said that, unlike in his first term, the re-elected President Trump “has begun to wield concrete violence in what he calls deal-making and negotiation,” and that behind this are foreign and security experts who joined Trump's team preparing for the return to power. These are the so-called “new neocons,” pursuing very hard-line policies under the banner of “America First.” Kim assessed that, before Trump emerged, the arrogance and greed of the Washington elites (the establishment) produced the rise of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement as a backlash. Yet, considering Trump's personal traits, he sees the instincts of a real estate developer operating more powerfully than any political ideology or conviction. Kim predicted that even if Trump as an individual exits, Washington politics will be considerably more right-leaning than before, and this line could steer the broader current of American society.

Both tariff negotiations with the United States and the war in the Middle East that Washington is waging have enormous impacts on South Korea. Kim said, “Trump-style politics is not something to negotiate with but a challenge that must be endured strategically.” The following is a Q&A.

“For Trump, he cannot avoid wrapping up this war by early to mid-June at the latest. Around then, the campaign for the November midtermsTrump's do-or-die electionwill enter full swing, and continuing a war leaves him with no path to victory.”

-What do you see as the background to the United States starting a war with Iran?

“The hallmark of the second Trump administration is the absence of a deliberative structure for governing the state. There are no experts; it is entirely staffed by loyalists to the President, so in Washington they call the second-term White House a ‘hollowed-out White House.’ Last year National Security Advisor Michael Waltz was dismissed over a (classified-leaks) scandal, and instead of appointing a replacement, they told Secretary of State Marco Rubio to double-hat the role. Rather than a structure in which highly trained experts debate foreign and security issues, responses are calibrated solely to ‘America First.’ They say the war is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but I do not think there was any strategic effort to achieve that.”

“What illustrates this well is that he let his son-in-law Jared Kushner and close friend Steve Witkoff act as special envoys to the Middle East. These two are Trump's closest confidants spanning the whole of U.S. foreign policy. Secretary of State Rubio and Vice President J. D. Vance sit beneath this envoys' layer. Kushner and Witkoff are not experts on Iran's nuclear issue; they are businessmen. In the nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 26, just before the outbreak of war, the proposal Iran put on the table contained fairly flexible elements, but I think the two did not understand them. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who wants to weaken Iran's status in the region and neutralize Hamas and Hezbollah, did egg things on, but I believe this war broke out on impulse by Trump and his inner circle.”

-Did President Trump fail to anticipate a protracted war?

“In January this year, the United States bombed Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro in an operation in which Secretary of State Rubio, born to a Cuban immigrant family, was deeply involved. The ouster of Maduro handled him not as the leader of another country but by designating him a domestic drug criminal under U.S. law. The idea was to sort out Venezuela and Cuba, which had been a thorn right under America's nose. U.S. public opinion holds that the Maduro removal operation succeeded. In Iran as well, they thought that if they only eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would become a country able to cooperate with the United States. Cooperation with the U.S. means securing the attacked country's resources and enabling a range of business deals, including development projects in the Middle East, under U.S. leadership. Reducing China's influence there is also a goal. But with the midterms ahead, there will be a time limit to the war as Trump imagines it.”

-There are signs of defections from the ‘Trump ship’ even within the Republican Party.

“In short, if Trump does not bring the war with Iran to a quick end, I expect a severe loss of public support. The strongest influence on elections is the price of gas. In the first Trump term, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against him. The U.S. Senate blocked them. If the Republican Party were to lose the Senate as well in this midterm, the possibility arises that Trump may not complete his term. Altough this is not an election in which people vote on a ballot bearing the name Trump, for him it is a do-or-die election. Typically, midterm campaigning starts on April 15 (Tax Day), and by early to mid-June at the latest the two parties begin pouring in political money. Unless the war is wrapped up by then somehow, it is fatal for Trump. Looking at past results, once in office the incumbent approval rating floor at the start of midterm campaigning is 40%. If it falls below that, the party suffers a crushing defeat.”

Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Grassroots Conference. Senior Reporter Kim Jeong-geun

-Inside the United States, sentiment excluding immigrants is strong. What changes are Korean communities feeling?

“In fact, when the United States goes to war against another country, immigrants from divided nations inside America are gripped by extreme anxiety. In an instant they become citizens from an enemy state. I went through very painful experiences when war broke out after the 9/11 attacks. For Korean Americans, the felt impact of war is not about Trump's election. They feel it on a different plane.”

“Around 600,000 Iranian Americans live in the United States. Most, like Koreans, are concentrated in LA. Because they know how much Iranian citizens suffer under the Khamenei system, they had hoped the United States would step in and dismantle Khamenei's power, but as the war drags on and Iran's land is devastated, the Iranian community becomes deeply fractured and you see wrenching scenes within it. What has changed in Trump's second term is that he has begun exercising concrete violence, and there is a tendency to think that if no Americans dieif these are long-range airstrikesthen it is not a war. This does not feel like someone else's problem to me. If, in a contingency, Trump were to apply the same judgment to North Korea as to Venezuela and Iran… I feel a real sense of crisis.”

Kim also said South Korea needs to change its approach to Korean Americans. He said, “South Korea should not presume that Korean Americans are a political force for the sake of Korea, but first recognize them as U.S. citizens and craft diaspora policy so that Koreans become exemplary citizens of the United States,” adding, “It is painful to see us seemingly moving more and more in the opposite direction.”

The Trump administration's foreign/security and economic policies have major impacts on South Korean society. On May 13-15, President Trump made his first visit to China in nine years and held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Jeong Dong-yeong, Minister of Unification, said on March 6 at a plenary meeting of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, “We hope that issues concerning peace and stability in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula will be placed on the agenda through the process of the U.S.-China summit,” reflecting the high level of interest in South Korea. Yet North Korea-related issues did not, in fact, draw attention in the bilateral summit. Trump praised results as China agreed to buy U.S. agricultural products and aircraft, but with Xi taking a principled stance on Iran, some assessed that he achieved little diplomatically. Kim said, “Trump's trip to China was an unavoidable choice.”

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping move to shake hands during a meeting in the Zhongnanhai garden in Beijing on May 15. AP Yonhap News

-How do you assess the results of the U.S.-China summit?

“It was an important event ahead of the midterms. If a big country like China does not buy U.S. goods, including American agricultural products, the U.S. economy struggles. In terms of Trump's personal traits, he likes strongmen. It is conducive to forging business partnerships. So I do not think it was completely ‘empty-handed’ diplomacy for Trump. U.S.-China relations actually worsened under the Joe Biden administration. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, masks and medical equipment did not come in from China, and Americans paid a heavy price. If a Democratic administration comes in, policy toward China will get even tougher, and South Korea may be forced into a harder choice of ‘the U.S. or China’ and find itself in a more difficult spot.”

-As seen in tariff talks, dealing with the Trump administration is not easy.

“We must see what the midterms bring, but there is no prospect that Trump will change. Recently inside the United States there has been much self-reproach, wondering whether the American democratic system was this flimsy. Some look at us with pity, saying we live in a ‘failing country,’ but although U.S. society does not have the mobilizing force, like South Korea, where citizens come out together to block and stop a bizarre political power, I think the United States is a society capable of recovery. Hence the bottom line is that the South Korean government should approach the United States as something to be endured. Enduring does not mean having no strategy; it is analogous to the ‘strategic ambiguity’ the U.S. has maintained over Taiwan. Stall for time where you can, and make deals where you need to.”

-You said the large currents of U.S. society will not change. South Korea will continue to be affected.

“It is very regrettable that in foreign and security affairs South Korea seems to have politics but no strategy. South Korea has become a ‘big country’ in the international community. It should gradually reduce U.S. influence. To emphasize, in political events when dealing with the United States, South Korea must always take a clear, bipartisan position. The government must have its stance and direction and conduct bipartisan diplomacy. When members of the National Assembly visit Washington, they must come, bipartisan, with a consolidated agenda for the national interest. Otherwise it is meaningless. All the more so in the Trump era. Going forward, relations with the United States should break out of the pro- or anti-American frame. Faced with the question ‘Are you with the U.S. or with China?’ choosing 0 or 100 is foolish. Instead, based on ‘yongmi,’ the strategic ambiguity I mentioned, South Korea should pursue a strategy that leverages the United States.”