Trump pressures Lithuania to crack EU potash sanctions on Belarus

The Trump administration is pressing Lithuania to open a central Baltic Sea port to potash exports from Belarus, despite European sanctions, as the U.S. looks to reduce its reliance on Canada for the critical fertilizer ingredient and help drive down costs for American farmers.

According to four European officials, U.S. special envoy for Belarus John Coale has put out feelers with Lithuanian diplomats in recent weeks about easing its blockade on goods from Belarus, which is part of EU-wide sanctions on President Alexander Lukashenko’s government, a close ally of Russia’s Vladimir Putin in the war with Ukraine. The punitive measures bar EU ports from shipping Belarusian goods, but they must be extended every 12 months.

Lithuania, which will take over the rotating presidency of the European Union at the beginning of the year, could in theory veto the next extension, due in February, allowing the sanctions to expire. Lithuania, however, is one of the EU’s staunchest allies of Ukraine.

President Trump claimed last month he “was working on a massive Deal” with Minsk to purchase potash “at a much lower price” than farmers are currently paying Canadian firms for the fertilizer. But that is contingent on being able to ship the agricultural input through the major Lithuanian port of Klaipeda on the Baltic Sea, or via other ports in the region.

“There has been intensified outreach to the Lithuanians by Donald Trump's team in the last weeks,” said a person familiar with the talks who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak about sensitive internal discussions.

The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.

Farmers everywhere have been grappling with a surge in potash prices, triggered by rising demand and Western sanctions on Russia, another major global source of the fertilizer component. The United States currently relies on imports for nearly all of the potash it uses, with Canada supplying roughly 80% of those imports.

The collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks in August and new tit-for-tat tariff hikes have only further spurred the administration’s interest in sourcing potash from Belarus, which controls around 20% of the world's market. And it comes alongside a broader push by Trump to ease sanctions on Russia and its allies as he tries to nudge Moscow to end its war with Ukraine. But that effort is running up against stiff resistance in Europe, where officials are deeply skeptical of giving any ground to Putin, which they believe will only further embolden the Russian autocrat and others in his orbit, like Lukashenko.

“They are pressing politely, but we say very clearly ‘fuck no,’” said an Eastern European official. “If Americans are not able to learn from history then we have to stand the ground.”

Two Eastern European officials said that Coale has been putting pressure on all levels of the Lithuanian government for more than a year, since Trump’s envoy first visited Minsk. A second Eastern European official said that the U.S. has been long engaged in talks about whether Belarusian potash could hit global markets through Klaipeda and other Baltic Sea ports, such as the Latvian capital of Riga, which would be an easier transport route than via Russia.

A European official confirmed Coale had also approached Latvian counterparts on this question.

A State Department official declined to comment on "specific commercial transactions," but said that "the U.S. looks for commercial opportunities that serve American economic interests, and we discuss commercial prospects with allies and partners regularly."

"We would welcome continued, regular exchanges on how our two approaches can advance commercial interests for both the U.S. and EU, as well as achieve humanitarian goals," the official continued, while noting that Belarus had recently shown "constructive engagement with the United States."

"As President Trump has said, sales of Belarusian potash to the United States help lower prices for U.S. farmers and ranchers," added the person, who was granted anonymity to share details of the agency's thinking.

Until the U.S. and the European Union imposed a broad sanctions regime on Minsk earlier this decade, 90% of Belarusian potash was exported through Klaipeda.

The EU's 27 countries agreed unanimously to ban Belarusian potash after concluding that Lukashenko did not legitimately win the 2020 elections and cracked down heavily on peaceful protests. The sanctions apply to all of the bloc’s ports and can only be reversed if all 27 governments unanimously agree to do so. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 — in which Belarus assisted — Washington and Brussels tightened the measures further.

But Trump started lifting some U.S. sanctions on Belarus last March, including on the state-run Belarusian Potash Company. Trump cast the sanctions relief as a way “to support American farmers” facing surging fertilizer costs after the attacks on Iran. The move also came after Coale brokered the release of 250 political prisoners in exchange for Washington partially easing sanctions.

Officials in Europe are not keen to follow Trump’s course. Bowing to U.S. pressure would be unpopular and politically fraught for both Lithuania and Latvia’s leaders, after both nations saw their governing coalitions collapse earlier this year.

Eastern European officials also worry that easing sanctions on Lukashenko could give him more international legitimacy and leeway to continue imprisoning his opponents.

The second European official also said it’s unclear if there is truly a global market for Belarusian potash, given Canada’s global dominance.

“There are many issues with this,” the official said. “And it’s obviously also a divisive issue nationally” for Lithuania.