Trump Says Gas Prices Were Higher Under Biden. Here’s What the Data Shows - Newsweek

With gas prices squeezing drivers’ budgets and weighing on general economic sentiment ahead of the midterms, President Donald Trump has argued that fuel costs—and those of nearly every other product—were higher during the previous administration.

Pump prices have soared since the launch of the Iran war on February 28, with average costs reaching $4.48 per gallon on Monday according to AAA figures. In addition to further pressure on already struggling consumers, this has created a significant political challenge for Trump’s party, which is facing an uphill battle when it comes to retaining control of the House and Senate.

Amid these criticisms—and polls showing declining faith in his economic stewardship—Trump has said higher gas is a small price to pay for a non-nuclear Iran, that prices will fall swiftly once the conflict ends, and that he still boasts a better record on fuel affordability than his predecessor, Joe Biden.

"Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under ‘TRUMP,’" the president wrote in a late-night post to his platform Truth Social on Sunday. "So were almost all other prices."

Newsweek has contacted the White House for further comment and is awaiting a response.

Both Biden and Trump came into office when gas was relatively cheap by historical standards, but global supply shocks sent domestic pump prices soaring at around the 60-week mark of their respective presidencies.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas was selling at an average of $2.38 when Biden was inaugurated in January 2021—attributed in part to the lingering economic slowdown caused by the COVID pandemic.

When Trump took office in January 2025, prices were just over $3.10 a gallon, though he had vowed ahead of his election to bring this to "below $2 a gallon" during his presidency.

For Biden, prices rose amid the pandemic recovery, and then significantly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Biden responded to this with sanctions on Moscow’s oil, and EIA data shows prices surged to over $5 by mid-June. These eased close to $3 by the end of the year—where they stood at the conclusion of his presidency.

Prices fell to under $2.80 around the one-year mark of Trump’s second term, but the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that kicked off the Iran war have sharply reversed this trend and pushed gas to $4.32 per gallon as of the latest reading.

Bob McNally, president of the D.C.-based consultancy Rapidan Energy Group, told Newsweek that the difference between the 2022 and 2026 oil shocks lies in the scale of actual supply disruptions.

While organizations like the International Energy Agency anticipated a loss of three million barrels per day after the invasion, McNally said Russia’s ability to redirect its exports toward markets like India limited any true global shortfall. Once prices had already peaked and this became clear, "prices collapsed."

"This underscores the role of market expectations in setting prices," he said. "In 2022, traders were pessimistic about the size and duration of an oil disruption, and, this year, they have been optimistic. In both cases, those expectations were incorrect."

But by most accounts, gas prices were higher under Biden than Trump’s current term. Trump’s peak of around $4.50 per gallon remains 50 cents shy of Biden’s during the 2022 energy crisis.

Prices rose by $0.66 over the course of Biden’s term, compared to $1.21 for Trump—though Biden’s increase stood at $1.31 at the same point of his presidency.

On average, prices under Biden remain slightly higher than under Trump—at $3.45 a gallon compared to $3.39—though not "much higher" as the president wrote on Sunday.

This gap was significantly wider before the launch of the Iran war, however, and has narrowed over 30 cents since then.

Inflation peaked at an annual rate of 9.1 percent under Biden in mid-2022, significantly higher than Trump’s second-term peak of 4.2 percent in May.

Though difficult to verify, the nature of inflation means Trump’s assertion that "almost" all goods were costlier between 2021 and 2025 is largely untrue.

BidentoTrump.com, a price-tracking website utilizing Federal Reserve economic data, assesses this comparison across a number of metrics and products, finding that Trump beats Biden on bacon—a presidency average of $6.61 to $7.04—as well as bread, butter and a number of other staple household goods, despite the broad upward movement in consumer prices.

Using Labor Department data, however, it shows that average prices for others, notably beef, coffee and dairy goods, have been far more expensive during Trump’s current term than under Biden.

Update, 9/21/26 8:09 a.m. ET: this article was updated with comments from Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group.