Trump says "pretend I’m on ballot"—where his approval rating stands - Newsweek

President Donald Trump told Republicans in Dallas on Wednesday to act as if he were running in November, while promising adults $5,000 if the GOP keeps Congress after the midterm elections.

Republicans are trying to reproduce presidential-election turnout among Trump supporters even as his national approval ratings remain deeply negative.

Four polling averages reviewed by Newsweek place his approval between 35 percent and 39.6 percent, with disapproval ranging from 57.1 percent to 63 percent.

Candidates in competitive House and Senate races could gain from stronger MAGA turnout or lose support among voters dissatisfied with the president.

The party holding the White House usually faces a difficult midterm environment. Trump’s answer is to make the election less about individual Republican candidates and more about whether voters want to preserve his power in Washington.

“Pretend that I’m on the ballot,” Trump told supporters at the Republican midterm convention at the American Airlines Center. “I’m on the ballot, just one more time.”

It was a revealing instruction. Trump is not legally standing for office this year, but he wants Republican voters to approach November 3 with the urgency of one of his presidential campaigns.

That strategy rests on a familiar Republican concern: some voters who turn out enthusiastically for Trump are less dependable when another candidate heads the ticket.

Making him the face of the midterms is intended to close that participation gap.

Yet the same approach carries an obvious risk. If Republicans ask Americans to vote as though Trump is running, voters unhappy with his presidency may do exactly that.

Recent polling shows why the wager is so uncertain.

In an interview that aired in part Thursday evening, Trump was asked by Fox News' Laura Ingraham if he plans to campaign the hardest he's ever campaigned before. Trump said no, highlighting that last presidential election cycle he campaigned for 4 months straight.

"But isn't this just as important Mr. President, your whole legacy is on the line," Ingraham said.

"When you say my legacy, I'll be a block. I'll end up being a blocker, I'll block all their bad stuff for two years. It won't be the same, but I'll be a blocker, what can I tell you," Trump later responded. "And probably be able to make deals with them...you make deals I mean it's one of those things," he added.

CNN’s latest Poll of Polls put Trump at 35 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval.

The September 1 average combined six national surveys of adults conducted between July 22 and August 31, including polls from Reuters/Ipsos, UMass Amherst/YouGov, Strength in Numbers/Verasight, Marquette Law School, AP-NORC and CNN.

Reuters/Ipsos surveyed 1,167 adults from August 28 to 31 with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

UMass Amherst and YouGov questioned 1,000 adults from August 21 to 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, while Strength in Numbers and Verasight surveyed 1,514 adults from August 14 to 19, with a 2.6 percentage point margin of error.

RealClearPolitics produced a less negative result, although Trump remained well underwater.

Its August 16 to September 8 average showed 39.6 percent approval and 57.1 percent disapproval, a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of minus 17.5.

The underlying surveys mix adults, registered voters and likely voters, one reason its result differs from CNN’s adults-only measure.

The New York Times average stood at 38 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval, giving a net approval rating of -20.

Silver Bulletin’s September 9 model placed Trump’s net approval at minus 19.5, slightly above its second-term low of minus 20.6.

Those trackers use different inclusion rules and weighting methods, so their precise figures should not be treated as interchangeable.

Still, all four point to the same conclusion: more Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance than approve.

One recent Economist/YouGov survey, conducted September 4 to 8 among 1,019 likely voters, with a plus or minus 3.4 percent margin of error, found 37 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval.

A recent Morning Consult survey, which ran between September 4 and September 6, was less negative at 42 percent approval to 55 percent disapproval among 2,201 registered voters.

The distance between those results illustrates why averages are more useful than presenting one survey as definitive.

Trump reinforced his turnout appeal with a promise that could become one of the campaign’s most contested proposals.

“If the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000,” he said, calling the payment a “Trump dividend.” He added that the money would have to be spent in the United States.

No legislation, eligibility framework or funding source accompanied the announcement.

With roughly 270 million adults in the country, paying each of them $5,000 would cost approximately $1.35 trillion.

Any proposal requiring federal spending would also face questions about congressional authorization and administration.

The promise nevertheless fits the political purpose of Trump’s speech.

It gives supporters a direct reason to connect the outcome of congressional races with his presidency, transforming an abstract fight over control of Congress into a personal and financial appeal.

Republicans are therefore testing two propositions at once: whether Trump can still bring presidential-year voters to the polls, and whether that benefit outweighs the opposition generated by his low approval ratings.

Trump has supplied the party’s answer. In November, voters will provide the evidence.

The White House has repeatedly played down unfavorable polling, arguing that Trump’s 2024 election victory remains the clearest measure of public support.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in a statement he has repeated many times: “The ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”

Ingle said the administration was focused on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.

“No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” he said.

“The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect,” Ingle added.