Trump’s snubbed COP — but he’s on everyone’s lips

ANTALYA, Turkey — Donald Trump is not at the COP31 climate summit but almost everyone is talking about him — and not in the way he’d like.

The U.S. president’s fateful decision to attack Iran earlier this year, sending global oil and gas prices soaring and compounding an international cost of living crisis, has been invoked — directly or indirectly — by leader after leader in Turkey as a reason to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz are “shaking global energy markets.” The U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham invoked the specter of “wars across two continents” that “have sent fuel prices and gas bills soaring for families and businesses across the world.” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres noted how “recent conflicts made clear” that countries’ dependence on imported fossil fuels “is a recipe for chronic insecurity and a cost-of-living meltdown.”

“The case for fossil fuels is collapsing,” Gutteres said.

Trump is the name on everyone’s lips for another reason, too.

For the first time since he was reelected two years ago — and promptly announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the U.N. climate process and double down on fossil fuels — delegates at COP are starting to picture life without him in the White House.

“His shadow is still here. His shadow is here because of the midterm elections,” said London Mayor Sadiq Khan, co-chair of the C40 group of city mayors who back stronger climate action. People could “see now, on the horizon, a world without President Trump” or “one of Trump’s protégés” he told POLITICO.

Notwithstanding the Republicans’ crushing midterms defeat — itself in part down to the war’s impact on international fuel prices — Trump still looms large.

“The shadow of Trump” is also present at COP because “everyone is struggling with the cost of living,” added Khan — who has form in beefing with the U.S. president.

“Whether you speak to people from the Middle East, from sub-Saharan Africa, from Europe … all these fingers are pointed at President Trump and what he did in Iran. More so ironically — perversely — than Putin in Ukraine. President Trump has got Putin off the hook.”

The rhetoric on display in Turkey has not gone unnoticed in Washington, which has not sent a delegation to COP31. The U.S. withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change treaty that underpins COP talks will be completed early next year.

“President Trump is ensuring Iran can never have or use a nuclear weapon—a threat that would have a catastrophic impact on the entire world," said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “The conflict in Iran has underscored the importance of having access to reliable, affordable, and secure energy sources.

“Nations around the world are now turning to the United States as both an example and a partner in pursuing common-sense energy dominance policies,” she argued.

Nonetheless, Khan’s criticisms of Trump — and a cautious optimism about post-2028 American climate policy — are echoed by other diplomats and campaigners in Turkey.

The U.S. midterms and even more importantly for most diplomats the reelection in Brazil of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva offer a “more positive vibe at COP31,” said founder of the E3G climate think tank Nick Mabey, “as countries see a move away from populism and the possibility of positive U.S. engagement on climate.”

“After Lula’s win and what we learned from the U.S. midterms,” agreed one European diplomat, “there’s a bit of a sense of tails up here now.”