U.S. import ban on new foreign robots and inverters... Why do analyses say it will ‘hardly hit China’? - 경향신문

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Massive energy investment for AI... U.S. production capacity remains limited

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Analyses indicate that the U.S. government ban on importing new models of advanced robots and power conversion devices (inverters) from abroad will not inflict significant damage on China and could place a burden on efforts to build U.S. power infrastructure. The Chinese government denounced the measure as “market distortion and unilateral bullying” and demanded its immediate withdrawal.

On the 30th, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued a statement in the name of its spokesperson, saying that the robot and inverter import ban announced the previous day by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is “a typical market distortion and unilateral bullying” and “a measure that discriminates against and suppresses Chinese companies and products.” The ministry said, “We demand the immediate withdrawal of the relevant measure,” adding, “If the United States persists in its wrong actions, China will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

The FCC, when announcing the import ban the previous day, said that relying on imports for advanced robots and inverters could “create supply chain vulnerabilities that may threaten the U.S. economy and national security, and pose security risks that threaten U.S. critical infrastructure.”

This is based on a ‘national security determination’ made at an interagency meeting convened by the White House on the 27th. In its decision, the interagency group stated that “data collected by robots could be misused by malicious actors to surveil Americans, strengthen the capabilities of foreign intelligence services, or remotely control the robots.” U.S. authorities made similar arguments when banning imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

The U.S. move came as several Chinese humanoid robot makers, including Unitree, are set for initial public offerings (IPOs) this year. Chinese robot companies reached the mass-production stage last year and are preparing for full-scale commercialization. Large-scale national investment, the combination of research and development (R&D) with manufacturing capabilities, and a broad domestic market that enables diverse experimentation shorten the time from development to mass production, a competitive strength for China in advanced technology. The United States appears intent on breaking the momentum as full-fledged products are rolled out, with large amounts of capital now converging.

Most U.S. companies are struggling at the mass-production stage, leading to cooperation with Chinese players such as Unitree. Soumen Mandal, a senior analyst at the market research firm Counterpoint Research, told CNN that U.S. companies such as Tesla, Figure, and Boston Dynamics will benefit from this measure.

However, according to CNN, Lian Jye Su, senior analyst for artificial intelligence and humanoid robots at the market research firm Omdia, said there is little likelihood that this measure will disrupt Chinese companies’ U.S. sales in the short term, and that, given U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, the overall impact would be “minimal.” Chinese companies, having weathered repeated U.S. containment measures, have taken a clear-eyed view of opportunities and risks in the U.S. market and have regarded Europe as the primary target market from the outset. Last year, 90% of global robot production took place in China and 6% in the United States, while 75% of deliveries were in China and 12.5% in the United States.

Chinese state media reactions are also somewhat relaxed. Zhang Xiaorong, head of the Beijing Institute of Advanced Technology, told the English-language state outlet Global Times that “in an emerging field like humanoid robots, which has not yet reached global mass adoption, such isolation blocks learning and benchmarking and hinders U.S. development.”

From the U.S. perspective, halting imports of Chinese power conversion devices is an even weaker link. The FCC said that the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under the Biden administration and the 2025 “Big and Beautiful Bill (OBBBA)” under the Trump administration have established a domestic base for mass production of inverters. In 2020, only 7% of inverter shipments in the United States were domestically made. However, according to the Idaho National Laboratory, even in 2024 about 80% of solar inverters in the United States are imported from Germany and China. Spurred by the IRA, many solar and wind power plants are nearing completion, and power demand is surging due to data center construction for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

U.S. energy outlet Canary Media reported that energy experts warn the FCC measure would seriously harm the U.S. energy industry if it applies to existing-model inverters as well. Wood Sangrow of Wood Mackenzie said that, given Chinese inverter makers account for about 60% of the U.S. market in that segment, domestic production capacity for solar inverters for utility, commercial, and industrial projects is uncertain. Chinese securities firm SMM likewise judged that, for this reason, the United States will continue importing Chinese inverters of existing models and that a sharp drop in exports in the short term is unlikely.

However, the FCC action could further sharpen trade disputes between China and Europe. In a report, SMM wrote that “the bigger concern is not U.S. orders immediately at risk, but whether this regulatory framework will spread to Europe and other high value-added markets, and whether future restrictions will expand beyond new models to existing products, key components, software, and cloud services.”