Ukraine expects no Black Sea ceasefire in coming months

Attacks on commercial vessels have multiplied in recent months as the Russia-Ukraine war has spilled into the Black Sea.

BRUSSELS – Ukraine sees no positive signs that there could be a ceasefire covering grain exports via the Black Sea in the coming months, as strikes in the region have drastically cut the country’s ability to export products vital to global supplies. 

“Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine any possible solutions in the nearest months on this issue,” Ukraine Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said in an interview in Brussels. “We have to really prepare that the situation remains as critical as it is now.”

Vysotskyi said Ukraine had been informed by countries facilitating talks that Russia has so far rejected all proposals from Kyiv’s partners, adding that “all of the possible rounds have been tried, and so far none of the results” have been achieved.

He was scheduled to update European Union peers on the situation later on Sept 28.

Russia and Ukraine, which make up more than a quarter of the world’s wheat shipments, have stepped up attacks on each other’s port facilities since July, snarling crop supplies and pushing up grain prices.

The possibility of talks around allowing grain exports via a limited ceasefire or moratorium on strikes helped ease prices in September.

Turkey was one of the countries that had said it was trying to re-establish a grain corridor to enable these exports.  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week he received a “positive” response from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky to efforts to reestablish a grain corridor through the Black Sea.

Ukraine has been pushing for a de-escalation of attacks, including reopening the Black Sea for shipments.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept 25 that those proposals remain on the table, but suggested they were driven by Russia’s retaliatory strikes against Ukraine.

Russia, in turn, will decide how to respond based on its own interests, he said.

Ukraine has seen an increase in exports using alternatives to the Black Sea, now at 45 per cent of what needs to be shipped.

However, Ukraine’s analysis is that a maximum of 50 per cent of agricultural commodities can be exported via these routes, meaning there is a risk that around 30 million tons of agricultural commodities will not be exported from the country this marketing year, Vysotskyi said. 

In an interview earlier in September, EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen said the bloc was looking “at all possible lanes” to support grain exports from Ukraine. 

Ukraine had sought specific support from the European Union for its agricultural sector, beyond the broad-based financial aid the bloc already provides.

But Vysotskyi said the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, had denied the request for €220 million (S$319.50 million) for farmers and a mechanism to support their liquidity, though the country would have sufficient funding via a US$250 million (S$319.45 million) low-interest World Bank loan. 

“It’s going to more or less provide us a possibility to survive until the new year,” Vysotskyi said. “But now we already have to think what’s going to happen from the spring after the new year, because the situation keeps being critical.”

Ukraine also made a request in August to increase its EU tariff-free quotas for 2027 for bioethanol and sugar, as it looks to boost exports of products that the bloc needs.

Should this happen without an issue, the country will seek to increase its quotas for other agricultural products, Vysotskyi said. BLOOMBERG