UNC's Bill Belichick Experiment has reached the buyer's remorse stage | Opinion - USA Today

CHAPEL HILL, NC — Ten million dollars per season. From the start, that’s a shade under $1.7 million for every Super Bowl ring.

So far this year, that’s $5 million per win. Going back to the start of last season, that’s about $6.7 million for every win against the Power Four.

Calculating the dollar amount per win against in-state rivals is difficult, since that hasn’t happened yet. (That’s also about $2 million, give or take, for every headshaking off-field embarrassment that’s befallen the program in the past 22 months.)

And against No. 3 Notre Dame, $10 million per season earned by its coach still resulted in North Carolina receiving a 37-26 home loss in a steady rain that was cosmetically competitive only because the Fighting Irish temporarily lost their senses midway through the second quarter.

We don’t need to wait until December to do the accounting on the Bill Belichick experiment. While closer than expected, the result does nothing to alter the perception of a tenure that will go down as one of the most surreal in Power Four history.

“We were certainly competitive,” Belichick said. “We missed some opportunities. We’ve got to try and take advantage of some of those opportunities. We had some chances and we missed them.”

UNC scored first but then turned the ball over twice and gave up 21 points in a row. After the Irish were stopped on fourth-and-goal at the UNC 3-yard line with 7:34 to play in the second quarter, the Tar Heels were able to score with 21 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 21-14 at the break.

Freshman Jaden Jefferson then took the opening kickoff of the second half 98 yards for a score to make it a one-point game when UNC botched the extra point to officially place the Fighting Irish on upset alert.

That middle chunk of time showed how UNC can compete in all three phases.

“Certainly, there were a lot of positives there,” Belichick said. “We had times when our execution was good.”

But Notre Dame regained control with two extended scoring drives to lead 34-20 one play into the fourth quarter. By that point, the Tar Heels’ lack of depth and ability to sustain drives paved the way for a win that was more one-sided than the final score might suggest.

Before a meaningless score with under three minutes remaining, UNC was outgained 195 yards to 14 in the second half. Overall, the Irish had 234 yards passing and 241 rushing yards while the Tar Heels managed just 285 total.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr completed 21 of 29 attempts and passed for three touchdowns and ran for another, becoming the program’s first quarterback in 30 years to have consecutive games with three-plus scores through the air and at least one on the ground.

One of the top contenders for the College Football Playoff and the national championship, Notre Dame will do the same to more Power Four programs than not. But only one Bowl Subdivision program has a coach on the sport’s Mount Rushmore.

Handing Belichick the keys has UNC finding positives in a loss that was closer than expected, sure, but only because the Irish got greedy and tried to deliver a knockout blow ahead of schedule. That’s beneath the program and the coach.

He’s had two cracks at transforming his roster in an era when immediate turnaround have become commonplace. The Tar Heels still lack talent, depth and experience. Otherwise, everything’s great.

For every Xavier Lewis, an underrecruited sophomore who represents a clear win in evaluation and development, or wide receiver Jordan Shipp, who could play anywhere, there are too many players who lack the talent or preparation to match with an opponent of Notre Dame’s caliber.

Every winter, the transfer portal gives Power Four programs their pick of undervalued and underpaid quarterbacks. UNC has settled on Gio Lopez, now the starter at Wake Forest, and well-traveled veteran Billy Edwards Jr., who was, if nothing else, very available.

Against the Irish, Edwards completed 17 of 28 attempts for 208 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. In three games against Power Four opponents, he’s completing 53.5% of his attempts with four scores and three picks.

Two offensive coordinators in two years haven’t helped, though. Last year’s coordinator, Freddie Kitchens, was replaced by Bobby Petrino, who may be the only single person in college football who can turn Belichick into a sympathetic figure.

After Saturday, the Tar Heels rank near the bottom of the Power Four in averaging 316 yards per game against FBS competition.

“We just need to make plays,” said Shipp. “That’s all. It just comes down to making plays.”

Defensively, Belichick has swapped coordinator duties from one son, Steve, to another, Brian, after Steve’s resignation last month following an internal investigation into the football program's culture.

Notre Dame ran 74 plays, gained 26 first downs, had possession for over 36 minutes and averaged 5.2 yards per carry despite using a variation on the same three basic running plays in the second half.

“We’re just not executing on the little things,” cornerback Jaiden Patterson said. “We just had a couple of miscommunications. Once we tighten that stuff up, we can really be a dominant defense. I believe that.”

Remember that Belichick didn’t inherit a mess. UNC reached the postseason six years in a row under his predecessor, Mack Brown, for the longest such stretch in program history. The Tar Heels won 17 games from 2022-23, tying for their most in a two-year span since 1997. Brown, who had six bowl appearances in his six seasons since his return to the school, then went 6-6 in 2024 before being fired.

At his current rate, Belichick should post his 17th win at UNC at some point in his fourth season.

He probably won’t get that far, of course. With buyer’s remorse already in effect — that kicked in last year, and maybe even before a single game was played — UNC is moving closer to firing Belichick after the season finale against North Carolina State.

Things do not get much easier from here. Up next is a road trip to unbeaten Pittsburgh, which should land in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll after Friday night’s win against Virginia Tech. Then comes another unbeaten team, rival Duke, also on the road. The Tar Heels also face No. 4 Miami and then Louisville and Virginia away from home in November.

Being in games into the fourth quarter against Clemson and Notre Dame has boosted the Tar Heels’ confidence. But this is a season on the brink, and things could easily deteriorate before Halloween.

This is also a coaching tenure on a razor’s edge. Buying out Belichick’s five-year contract would cost his $10 million salary for next season, a drop in the bucket compared to the massive payouts in place at Florida State and elsewhere.

If things do fall apart, UNC will have to eat crow and plan for a coaching search that actually searches for a solution instead of just headlines.

But the money is nothing, relatively speaking. After spending $10 million for last year’s four-win finish and another $10 million for whatever unfolds the rest of this season, to pay Belichick to never coach again would be money well spent.

“Every week is a different week and every game is a different game,” he said. “We’ll see what happens this week.”