US Federal Reserve meeting today: When and where to watch Kevin Warsh's Speech? Here's what to expect

The Federal Reserve, which serves as the central banking institution of the United States, is scheduled to convene on September 15-16 in Washington, District of Columbia. The institution will release its determination regarding interest rates at 2:00 pm Eastern Standard Time (11:30 pm Indian Standard Time) on September 16, with a subsequent press briefing conducted by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 15-16 could lead to its first rate hike in over a year, with a 92.4% probability for a 25-basis-point increase reflecting economic pressures. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)This constitutes one of four annual gatherings during which the Federal Reserve communicates its perspective regarding the trajectory of interest rates.

United States interest rates have been maintained at a constant level of 3.50%-3.75% since the month of July. However, certain members expressed dissent during that period, contending that rate increases were necessary given that price escalation in the United States was occurring at a pace exceeding the Federal Reserve's comfort threshold.

Financial markets and trading platforms that monitor the likelihood of a rate adjustment have experienced considerable fluctuations throughout the preceding weeks, with the probability of an increase shifting from beneath 30% to approximately 65% across various intervals.

Currently, the majority of probability indicators position the likelihood of a rate increase at approximately 50%, rendering the outcome essentially equivalent to a coin flip, though with a marginal bias toward higher interest rates. Should the Federal Reserve implement a rate increase, this would constitute the inaugural adjustment upward in excess of twelve months, succeeding a phase during which rates remained constant or experienced reductions.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants trading in interest rate futures are assigning a 92.4% probability to a 25-basis-point increase in rates, while attributing merely a 7.6% probability to the maintenance of current rate levels. This assessment aligns with findings from a recent Reuters survey, which demonstrated that a substantial 85% of surveyed economists (86 of 101 respondents) anticipate the Federal Reserve will implement a rate increase, with 53% of these professionals projecting at least one supplementary rate adjustment by March 2027.

Leading market analysts underscore that improved economic performance has limited the central bank's flexibility in policy decisions. Stephen Juneau, principal economist for the United States at Bank of America, observed that Chair Kevin Warsh has “kind of boxed himself into where the data needed to be very soft for the Fed not to follow through with a hike,” according to Reuters.

Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, senior strategists specializing in global macroeconomic analysis at Macquarie, drew attention to the delicate equilibrium the central bank's leadership must maintain. "Kevin Warsh has a conundrum," they stated in their analytical report. They elaborated that Warsh must reconcile external pressure advocating for reduced interest rates with the prevailing consensus among committee members supporting a rate increase, determining that Warsh is most probable to “go with the internal flow and accede to the majority's wishes for a hike.”

The Federal Reserve shall formally announce its September Federal Open Market Committee interest rate determination on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:30 p.m. IST).

Following the release of the rate decision and monetary policy statement, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will conduct his post-meeting press conference thirty minutes thereafter at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (12:00 a.m. Indian Standard Time on September 17).

Shweta Kukreti has over 8 years of experience in covering Indian and world politics. She joined the Hindustan Times in 2024 and is primarily assigned to the US desk. She currently works as Deputy Chief Content Producer and reports on a wide range of topics, including US politics, immigration issues (especially H-1B visa) and major global events. Shweta strongly emphasizes team operations, which encompasses monitoring news, delegating tasks, editing, developing comprehensive coverage strategies, and crafting engaging, and data-informed narratives. She received the Digi Star Award at the Hindustan Times within a year of joining for her broad coverage of US politics. In 2025, she earned both a promotion and a redesignation, a significant achievement recognising her contributions and the strong value she brings to the team. She has previously worked with the Indian Express, HTDS, ANI and Republic World. Seniors in all the media organisations recognised her work. Regarding education, she earned a BA (Hons.) in Political Science and a master's degree from Delhi University, and she pursued a PG Diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Institution of Mass Communication (IIMC). She also holds a diploma in Women's Empowerment and Development from IGNOU University and a French certification course from Alliance Française de Delhi. If not working, you can find her exploring the hills and engaging in adventurous activities in Rishikesh and Himachal Pradesh. She loves to play badminton, volleyball, and chess, and spend time with her friends and family. She also enjoys spiritual activities.Read More