View / Big Oil sweats the blue wave - Semafor

One of the many ironies of Tuesday’s Democratic sweep of Congress was that for Big Oil, the same bull energy market that delivered one of its most profitable years ever also returned power to the party that’s often bent on bringing the industry to heel.

Still, Mike Sommers, who as president of the American Petroleum Institute is the country’s top oil lobbyist, told me he’s not particularly worried about a green backlash. That’s in part because the blue wave carried many more affordability-minded moderates than climate-focused progressives: “I think we just elected a lot of Joe Manchins and Mary Landrieus,” he said, referring to a pair of well-known former Democratic senators who advocated for the industry.

Sommers said it’s possible that the Trump administration’s oil deal with Venezuela becomes a target for oversight hearings. Democrats, while not able to directly control US national security strategy, can also flex their powers over the budget and personnel confirmations to pressure US President Donald Trump on a deal with Iran, which would push oil prices down.

But apart from that, in practice there’s not a whole lot that Congress can do to hurt the oil industry; the more tangible actions tend to come from the executive branch, like former US President Joe Biden’s freeze on LNG terminals. Between an ongoing refinery crunch and the AI power rush, any legislative or budget proposal that appears to take molecules off the market isn’t likely to go far, and industry leaders appear ready to swallow their pride: “We’re here to serve,” Hunter Hunt, CEO of Texas driller Hunt Energy, told me in Abu Dhabi. “We’ll adjust as best we can.”

Sommers is anxious to see the permitting reform bill currently awaiting approval in the Senate, which would give a major boost to energy projects of all stripes, passed before Democrats take their majority seats in January. The Senate is due to vote on Monday about whether to bring it to the floor for passage, a vote that some progressives may try to undermine, targeting a more renewables-friendly deal. But the toxic relationship between Democratic leaders and the White House, as my colleagues reported, means the more likely outcome is no deal at all.

Meanwhile, executives from “Little Oil” companies on the tradeshow floor at ADIPEC this week weren’t thrilled by the election outcome, but not really sweating it either. “Oil will survive,” said Tom Inman, whose Houston company Dragon Products makes pumps and other fracking gear. “Democrats have tried to shut us down before. But it’s still very easy to sell oil.”