View / Democrats’ win won’t mean a major US-Africa shift - Semafor

Last night’s sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections heralds a shift in vibes rather than policy.

As John “JT” Tomaszewski, the National Endowment for Democracy’s senior director for Africa, told me, African countries will “still struggle” to get on the agenda because of the competing domestic priorities battling for lawmakers’ attention following a chastening electoral rebuke to President Donald Trump. There will, however, be more scope for congressional scrutiny of his administration’s policies. Democrats will likely be keen to use hearings and investigations to revisit the dismantling of USAID and the human costs of cuts to foreign assistance.

Some of that would be welcomed because there are still key questions about the administration’s decisions that probably deserve public answers. They will certainly embarrass the White House, which is kind of the point, says Cameron Hudson, a George W. Bush-era official. But I am less convinced that the theater of hearings will translate into meaningful changes in US-Africa policy.

Veteran Democrats understand this challenge. A former US ambassador under Joe Biden told me he would like to see — but doesn’t expect — a more assertive Democratic agenda setting out what the US relationship with Africa should actually look like. But, this person suggested, there isn’t any political appetite left for restoring traditional development assistance: “Everybody’s moved on from that.”

Meanwhile, African governments have more immediate concerns. One African ambassador, who asked not to be identified, noted visa bans and restrictions currently affect more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, questioning how Washington can keep promoting “commercial diplomacy” while making it harder for African business leaders to travel to the US. “How can the US keep talking about moving to do commerce with Africa when its business leaders can’t visit?” the ambassador asked.

There may be a new mood in Washington, but for now, African governments will have to judge Washington by what it does, not what Democrats say about what Trump has done. As the ambassador said: “We’ll welcome the changes so we can have more soberness.”