Vivek Ramaswamy’s Odds of Winning in Ohio Hit All-Time Low: What Polls Show - Newsweek

Republican candidate for Ohio Governor Vivek Ramaswamy's odds of winning the race against Democrat Amy Acton dipped to a new low on prediction market site Kalshi on Monday as the race for the governor's mansion heats up before midterms.

According to the prediction market site, Ramaswamy's odds in April fell below Acton's before surging at the end of May. He again trailed Acton around August 13, and has not rebounded since. Kalshi on Monday posted to X that Ramaswamy's odds of 43 percent marked his new all-time overall low.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

President Donald Trump won Ohio in the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits and he has backed Ramaswamy, also a candidate for the White House two years ago, in his bid for the governor's seat.

Newsweek reached out to both Acton and Ramaswamy's campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

Ramaswamy and Acton, a physician who previously led Ohio's Department of Health, face off as GOP Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited.

Although Ohio twice voted for former President Barack Obama, in 2008 and 2012, the state has recently trended Republican in election cycles, backing Trump in three consecutive presidential contests. Democrats also suffered a notable loss in the last election when longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost his bid for another term to Republican Bernie Moreno.

Even so, Democrats see Ohio as one of their best pickup opportunities in the 2026 midterms. In addition to the governor's race, the party is eyeing Brown's Senate comeback attempt against Republican Senator Jon Husted. Recent surveys have also seemingly pointed to close contests, with Acton and Brown often holding slim leads. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate election contest as a toss-up.

Democrats hope to capitalize on Trump's unfavorable polling as his overall approval rating hits record lows as well as key administrative policies like immigration, the economy and foreign policy amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Prediction market site Polymarket gives Acton a 58 percent chance of winning compared to Ramaswamy's 41 percent. On the site, Acton has led her Republican opponent since late August.

Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Monday, "A drop for Ramaswamy on Kalshi is worth watching because Ohio should be friendly terrain for a Republican. When traders put Acton near 57 to 59 percent, they are pricing in a midterm environment that is tougher for the party in power, plus questions about Ramaswamy’s personal standing with independents."

"It is concerning as a signal, not as a verdict. Parties look at prediction markets more than they did a few years ago, especially operatives and donors who want a live scoreboard. They do not treat them as a true snapshot of the electorate. Markets reflect money, news flow and trader bias. Polls, turnout models and field work still decide how campaigns spend. Use Kalshi as an early warning, not as a substitute for voters. Sites like PredictionEdge.com are becoming more popular for political prediction markets."

A YouGov and Bowling Green State University poll this month shows that 48 percent would pick Acton over 45 percent who said Ramaswamy in Ohio's gubernatorial race. Four percent said Libertarian Don Kissick and 3 percent chose someone else. When asked regardless of preference, who they think will win the race, 62 percent said Ramaswamy, 36 percent said Acton and 1 percent said Kissick.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Ohio voters from September 1 to September 10 and had a margin of error of 4 percent.

A Wedgewood poll shows Acton up 1 percent, with 48 percent compared to Ramaswamy's 47 percent and 7 percent are undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from August 11 to August 13 and has a 4 percent margin of error.

Ramaswamy leads in a Fox News Poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with 50 percent compared to Acton's 48 percent. The poll shows a shift from June, when Acton was up 1 point with 50 percent compared to Ramaswamy's 49 percent.

The poll also shows that Ramaswamy's favorability rating is 46 percent compared to a 44 percent unfavorable rating. Acton's favorability rating is 43 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating. The poll was conducted from August 6 to August 10 among 1,008 Ohio registered voters and had a margin of error of 3 percent.

According to the Cook Political Report, the race is also rated as a toss-up.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.