Vivian Bercovici: Benjamin Netanyahu will not go quietly after indecisive election - National Post

Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to supporters at the Likud Party election-night event at the Teddy Hall, International Convention Center on October 28, 2026 in Jerusalem, Israel. Photo by Chris McGrath /Getty ImagesArticle contentIsrael’s much anticipated election results are anything but clear; the political equivalent of a Rorschach test. One can see what they wish in the results, which will not be final until Friday afternoon, when all votes will be tallied.

Meanwhile, both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the unofficial leader of the change bloc, Yashar! leader Gadi Eisenkot each claimed to have emerged as the front-runner early Wednesday morning.

A few hours later the sands had shifted, dramatically.

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To reach a majority of 61 Knesset seats always entails the formation of a coalition led by a dominant party, historically the one with the largest number of seats. At the moment that is Netanyahu and his Likud party.

In the coming days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet with each party represented in the new Knesset. They will make their case, either as to why they should lead, or who they would support to head a coalition government. A critical part of this effort requires Herzog to sift through the irreconcilable competing interests of the various parties. It is a challenge demanding Solomonic wisdom and extreme fortitude.

Netanyahu’s Likud faction holds 27 seats. Eisenkot commands 20, as of midday Wednesday, Israel time. The gap between them widened significantly since the earliest reports that were based on exit polls.

And it appears that they were very rough numbers.

Shortly after 1 a.m., Eisenkot took to the stage with unmitigated energy. Jubilation. “We made history,” he told his supporters. “The public voted in favour of change…(and) against Netanyahu’s continued tenure as Prime Minister of Israel.”

Soon after Eisenkot’s remarks, Netanyahu told his supporters that “the right-wing bloc has a clear, strong majority among the Zionist public, the Jewish public, and all those who support the Jewish state.”

Hours later, things look quite different.

Netanyahu leads what has come to be known as the right-wing bloc in the Knesset, which until now included the ultra-orthodox parties. His claim of dominance and clarity is based on the assumption that all parties included in the previous coalition will constitute a part of his bloc going forward. It is a flawed presumption, because the ultra-orthodox are furious with Netanyahu for having failed to pass a law exempting ultra-orthodox men from military or national service. That was their primary reason for supporting his coalition and they have very publicly denounced him as a “liar” who they no longer trust.

What Netanyahu does have, however, is a commanding lead with 27 seats, which is a huge advantage in negotiations.

Eisenkot claimed victory because late Tuesday night, the parties supporting a change government reportedly held more Knesset seats than Netanyahu. When he made his speech, the tally was 52 to 50 for the change bloc.