Voter Turnout Shows Democrat Enthusiasm in Trump’s Home State of Florida - Newsweek

Voter turnout in Florida appears to be more friendly to Democrats this year than in 2022 or 2024, though Republicans still had an edge as of Tuesday afternoon, just hours before polls closed.

Democrats are hoping to make a comeback this year in Florida, a former battleground that has shifted toward Republicans over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. Democrats hope that a favorable national environment, fueled by Trump’s declining approval numbers, as well as a reversion among Hispanic voters who swung toward the GOP in recent cycles, could help them regain ground.

The voter turnout data may have important implications for the Florida gubernatorial and Senate races, as well as several House races that are seen as competitive on Election Day. While the data suggests the state may be less Republican than in other recent elections, one analyst has cautioned that it may not be enough of a shift for Democrats to win statewide.

Writing on X, pollster G. Elliott Morris said he did not believe the numbers were strong enough for Democrats to win statewide, but that would still depend on how unaffiliated voters cast their ballots.

"What ballot data is primarily useful for is identifying the likely swing since the last election and comparing that to the polls, so we can have a prior on polling error going into vote tallying," Morris wrote.

Republican Senator Ashley Moody is facing a challenge from Democratic state legislator Angie Nixon in a race that the Cook Political Report shifted from Safe to Likely Republican in the final days of the campaign.

In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democratic former Representative David Jolly are running to succeed GOP Governor Ron DeSantis.

Newsweek reached out to the Donalds, Jolly, Moody and Nixon campaigns for comment via email.

As of 3 p.m. ET, Republicans led Democrats by about 7.4 points among early and Election Day turnout, according to FreshTake, a news source run by the University of Florida that compiles turnout data from each Florida county.

It found that 2,518,340 of the voters who have turned out identify as Democrats, and 3,044,940 identify as Republicans. An additional 1,622,207 voters identified with neither party.

The turnout data is important but is not necessarily the only metric that matters. How those independent voters swing, and whether a candidate is able to make significant inroads with voters from the opposite party, could be key to the eventual outcome of the races in Florida. The turnout data could also change throughout the evening.

Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, described the turnout data as pointing to a "modest but clear" enthusiasm among Democrats. He noted that it marked a leftward shift from 2024, when the final turnout advantage was about 11.1 points for Republicans in Florida.

Morris said turnout data across the country points to a "relative turnout advantage" that could be similar to 2018, the most recent "blue wave" election year.

"This is basically what the polls showed, and so gives some validation of at least one of the underlying mechanisms of Dem gains in the polls — a turnout edge for Dems manifesting in a large LV (likely voters) - RV (registered voters) gap," he wrote.

Polling has favored Donalds in the gubernatorial race but did show that it could become competitive.

A poll published last week by The New York Times and Siena University, a top-rated pollster, showed Donalds’ support stood at 48 percent, compared to Jolly’s 44 percent. It surveyed 813 likely voters from October 19 to 25, with a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

A YouGov/Univision poll gave Donalds an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 825 voters from October 2 to 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Donalds also led by 6 points in an Echelon Insights poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. It polled 515 likely voters from October 16 to 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The new poll from the Times showed Moody with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Nixon’s 44 percent.

The Echelon Insights poll showed Moody up 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent.

A YouGov poll showed Moody up 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 3,813 likely voters from September 28 to October 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage in Florida over the past decade, making it more difficult for Democrats to compete statewide.

As of September 30, there were 5,678,755 registered Republicans and 4,133,397 registered Democrats in Florida, with an additional 3,345,188 "no party affiliation" voters, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

Several factors contributed to the realignment. Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, flipping traditionally Democratic areas, including Miami-Dade County, while Democrats have struggled to counter GOP messaging in the state.

Population growth also played a role. Florida added millions of new residents, many arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The GOP’s growing edge was reflected at the ballot box, culminating in Republican Governor Ron DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022.

Those victories allowed Republicans to enact a wave of conservative policies in the state that may also be a draw to Republican voters fleeing more progressive states like New York. Over the past several years, Florida enacted conservative‑leaning policies on education, voting, immigration and social issues.

Democrats have performed well in special elections in Florida since Trump returned to office and have hoped that could be a signal that they can still compete in the state.

Prediction markets have favored Republicans in Florida.

Donalds had a 60 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 59 percent chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Moody had an 88 percent chance on Kalshi and an 89 percent chance on Polymarket of winning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.