Voters deliver verdict on guns as political division widens

Voters overwhelmingly support caps on the number of firearms an individual can own and time limits on gun licences, offering a major boost to the Minns government after it stared down attempts in NSW parliament this week to unwind key aspects of its post-Bondi reforms.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald found that, despite a backlash to changes to gun laws announced after Bondi, voters support the changes by a wide margin.

In total, 80 per cent of voters said they supported restricting gun licences to Australian citizens, 73 per cent favoured the four-gun cap for individuals, and 75 per cent supported time limits on licences forcing owners to reapply every few years.

A majority – 53 per cent – said they supported the government’s gun buyback, which has drawn criticism from gun owners, the Coalition and some independent MPs. Only 20 per cent opposed the buyback, with 27 per cent either neutral or undecided.

The poll of 1100 voters was taken across two samples in August and September. The latter sample, of 550 voters, also tracked support for new NSW One Nation leader Mike Newman for the first time. Newman made headlines this week after he apologised for a “foot in the mouth moment” in which he said the right-wing party wanted to stop abortions in the state.

The poll found Newman was preferred premier among 8 per cent of voters, almost all of which came at the expense of Premier Chris Minns, whose rating fell from 36 per cent to 27 per cent. Opposition leader Kellie Sloane went from 16 per cent preferred premier to 15 per cent.

The three parties recorded almost no change in primary vote from the previous poll, with Labor and One Nation remaining at 29 per cent and 25 per cent respectively. The Coalition moved up one point to 24 per cent.

The results on firearms come after the Coalition this week supported an attempt by the Independent MP Roy Butler to delay the buyback.

Butler, the MP for Barwon in the state’s far west, moved a disallowance motion which would have delayed the buyback, and by extension, the cap. During the debate, opposition police spokesman Anthony Roberts said the government had chosen “the wrong target”.

“The shooters at the local target range are not responsible for that gangland conflict; neither is the farmer protecting livestock, nor are those using firearms as essential tools for pest control and land management,” he said.

The government has faced backlash over the measures on multiple fronts. After initially backing the buyback, the Liberal Party walked away from its previous support this year.

Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane last month described the policy as “bullshit”, accusing the Minns government of using it as a “smokescreen for their inaction” on community safety and social cohesion.

While the Coalition has yet to formally announce its position on gun caps, the opposition is likely to push for a broader exemption for primary producers who, under legislation passed by Labor after the Bondi massacre, are limited to 10 firearms. The limits have prompted fierce opposition in some regional areas.

Support for the total package was 63 per cent, slightly lower than the 67 per cent recorded in the immediate aftermath of the Bondi attack.

The Resolve poll found broad support for the suite of gun reforms across the political spectrum: 77 per cent of Labor supporters, 66 per cent of Coalition voters and 65 per cent of Greens backed the changes. The poll found 60 per cent of undecided voters also supported the reforms. Among voters for One Nation, which has vehemently rejected the buyback, the suite of reforms had 45 per cent support.

The poll also showed opposition to the measures was low. Only 6 per cent of voters opposed limiting firearms to Australian citizens, and 11 per cent opposed the four-gun cap.

While Butler’s disallowance vote was defeated 31 votes to 47, Labor will probably face another challenge to the buyback and caps in the upper house, where Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP Mark Banasiak plans to move a similar disallowance motion. A vote in the upper house, probably next month, would be far tighter.

The broad support for the measures will bolster the government’s arguments on the reforms, but their popularity in a clutch of seats in south-western Sydney and the Hunter could prove more significant. Camden, a crucial marginal seat held by Labor but set to be targeted by both the Liberals and One Nation, is home to 2621 licensed gun owners, the highest number in Sydney.

The two samples were taken between August 9 and 15, and September 7 and 12.

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