Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland leaders sign UK change pact

The leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday signed a pact calling for constitutional change in the United Kingdom and said their future lies with the European Union. In a memorandum of understanding, the three leaders said the move showed that Westminster was nearing the end of its time.

The development adds to pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham, whose office dismissed the move and said he remained focused on everyday issues rather than constitutional debate. The announcement also came about 48 hours after US President Donald Trump said he would "love to see" a reunified Ireland during a trip linked to the Irish Open.

It is the first time that the leaders of all three parts of the UK are either from pro-independence parties, or in Northern Ireland's case, from a pro-unification party. In their memorandum, they said: "For people watching across these islands - for people watching around the world - there could be no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end." The reference was to the UK Parliament.

Burnham's spokesperson played down the significance of the pact. "The United Kingdom is at its best when people come together around our shared values and problem-solving, rather than division," Tom Wells said. Nicola McEwen, director of the University of Glasgow Centre for Public Policy, said the summit was symbolically important but had no legal significance. "I don't see the threat to the union being bigger today than it was yesterday," McEwen said.

Under devolution reforms introduced in the late 1990s, each country in the UK except England was given some level of policy independence and self-governance through its own parliament or assembly. But tensions have continued with the UK government in London, which kept control over national issues and matters concerning England.

Scotland's John Swinney and Northern Ireland's Michelle O'Neill called for independence referendums in their countries, while Rhun ap Iorwerth did not set out a timetable for one in Wales. The three leaders appeared in their political capacity rather than their official roles, possibly because O'Neill serves in a power-sharing government with the Democratic Unionist Party.

Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP accused O'Neill of the Sinn Fein party of "weaponising" the role of first minister by signing the agreement. O'Neill replied: "I am first minister in the north of Ireland. This is about historic change happening all around us."

Scotland's 2014 independence referendum ended in defeat for the campaign to leave the UK, with voters rejecting it by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. But McEwen said support for Scottish independence had risen since Brexit, after the UK formally left the European Union in January 2020 following the June 2016 referendum. Swinney, leader of the Scottish National Party, said he believed voters would now back independence if the UK government approved a referendum.

Burnham told Parliament last week that he would allow such a vote if there was a "clear consensus" in Scotland, but later sent Swinney a letter saying a vote was "off limits". In Northern Ireland, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement requires a vote on unification if polling shows it would probably pass, though the UK government says that threshold has not been met. Any such change would also need approval in a referendum in Ireland.

Burnham has made devolution a major theme since taking office less than two months ago, though his focus has been on regional government within England, reflecting his years as mayor of Greater Manchester. Swinney sought to use that argument in support of Scotland's case, saying Burnham's frequent talk of devolution "leads you to the logic of recognising the right of the people of Scotland, in my case, to decide their own future".

McEwen said the biggest effect of the three leaders joining hands may be regular cooperation, which could help them exert more influence on the UK government. "It does keep on the agenda that question about, well, if the United Kingdom is a union based on consent, what is the pathway where it looks like that consent may no longer be there?" she said. "Any UK government has been very reluctant to engage in that discussion." Overall, the pact has sharpened the debate over the future of the union, even as experts said it carries symbolic weight rather than legal force.