What timing of a second referendum in Alberta could look like, if it were to happen

Albertans will vote on 10 questions in a referendum Oct. 19, including whether they support the province remaining in Confederation, or they support the province beginning the legal process to have a second, binding referendum on separation. (Janet French/CBC)Social SharingAlbertans will vote next month on the possibility of a second referendum on separation, but exactly when that referendum — if a majority voted for it — would happen, remains somewhat murky.

The Oct. 19 referendum will include 10 questions, including whether Albertans would like to remain in Confederation, or if they support the province beginning the legal process of holding a binding referendum on separation. 

Polls have consistently shown the majority of Albertans would prefer to stay in Canada, but polls aren’t outcomes. Political analysts expect turnout to be a key factor in determining whether a second referendum is necessary. 

Elections Alberta said any questions about a future, second referendum must be directed to the provincial government. 

“Should Albertans give us that direction in the Fall 2026 referendum, we would begin the legal process under the constitution to hold the binding referendum as soon as possible,” the premier’s press secretary Sam Blackett said in a statement. 

In an audio recording from a UCP town hall in Lethbridge in August, Premier Danielle Smith is heard saying her goal would be to hold a binding referendum in spring 2027, if a majority of Albertans vote for it this fall.

Alberta content creator Lawrence Magee, who runs the account Berta Proud Dad, shared the recording.

In the audio, Smith says holding the vote in the spring would settle the issue before the next provincial election. That election is set for October 2027, though the premier can call a snap election before then. 

A mock-up of a ballot with the 10th question in the upcoming October referendum. Elections Alberta gave a preview of the ballots to reporters on Sept. 3. (Kory Siegers/CBC)Smith estimated in the recording a timeline of roughly two-and-a-half months of consultations, before the question would be finalized and submitted to the House of Commons for approval, and a vote scheduled for March or April. 

“If this is truly going to [be] a referendum on those precise terms of departure, then there would likely have to be pretty long and pretty deep [consultations] and getting it done in a six-month stretch is extremely ambitious,” University of Alberta associate law professor Gerard Kennedy told CBC News. 

But at a news conference on Aug. 26, Smith seemed to backpedal on that proposed timeline, citing the rules in the Citizen Initiative Act that prohibit a referendum from a citizen petition within a year of a general election. 

Those remarks had some separatists fuming, including the Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeff Rath, who rejected the idea the legislation is really any sort of an impediment to holding a binding referendum in 2027. 

He suggested Smith is the real hurdle.

“As long as Premier Smith is premier of Alberta, Alberta will never be free,” he told hundreds of supporters outside the legislature late last month.  

Jeff Rath speaks at a pro-separation rally outside the Alberta legislature in Edmonton on Aug. 29. (Bob Grieve/CBC)As to why the act prohibits citizen-initiated referendums in an election year, Kennedy says the reason is likely two-fold: both the burden on Elections Alberta, and the possibility that the issue could be one that comes up naturally in an election campaign. 

“What [Smith] says isn't wrong, but it's not complete,” said Kennedy. 

With its majority seat count, he says there is nothing stopping the government from simply changing the legislation. 

“It would have to go through the legislative process, but they can do that quickly if they have to,” Kennedy said. 

Plus, he says there’s nothing stopping the premier from calling a vote under the Referendum Act, which, unlike the Citizen Initiative Act, does not stipulate any kind of referendum black-out period before an election. 

“Now, I don't think Elections Alberta would be very happy about that, because they are not exactly bored,” Kennedy said. 

Under the Referendum Act, a separation vote could even be added as a ballot-box question during a provincial election. 

But what makes sense politically for Smith is a separate question.

“If she were to call another referendum, let's say six months after the original referendum, six months ahead of a general election, there I think could be a very considerable political cost to pay,” said political scientist Lori Williams.

“Certainly she'd run into voter fatigue and a considerable backlash from those who object to being asked twice about a question that it's clear the majority of Albertans oppose.”

In a news conference Sept. 1, Smith said she could not give a clear answer on when a theoretical second referendum might be held, because the court has “put a bit of a monkey wrench” in the situation. 

Justice Shaina Leonard quashed a citizen-led petition on separation, ruling the government failed to carry out proper consultations with First Nations.

Smith says the government has not been given parameters as to what those consultations would need to look like. 

The government is appealing the court’s decision, as is separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre, who led the petition drive. 

It would be helpful, Kennedy said, to have those appeals dealt with first. The appeal court’s ruling — and potentially that of the Supreme Court, should the case go there — could help set the terms for what consultations look like. 

Once the province has done consultations, it would need to settle on the wording of the referendum question. Within 30 days of that, the House of Commons would weigh in on the chosen question, as per the federal Clarity Act.

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MPs would vote on the question, deciding if it is both clear and would result in clear expression of the will of the province. 

Former MP Stephane Dion, who drafted the Clarity Act, is seen receiving a kiss from then-Labour Minister Claudette Bradshaw in the House of Commons on March 15, 2000, at the third and final reading of the bill. (Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)Because the Clarity Act was enacted in 2000, following the last Quebec sovereignty referendum, it would be the first time it would be tested.

“We are in uncharted territory. Like, if the province said ‘we don't care what the Clarity Act has to say,' that might be pragmatically unwise, but it's not necessarily doomed to legal failure,” Kennedy said. 

However, given the polls that show majority support lies on the remain side, Kennedy doubts that it will be put to the test in this case.

“Do you want what my best prediction is? There's nowhere near a majority vote yes in the Oct. 19 referendum and this is all a moot point.” 

Jennifer is a reporter with CBC Calgary. Previously, she worked for CTV News in Toronto. You can reach her at jennifer.keiller@cbc.ca