What’s at stake for Putin in Russia’s wartime election?

A woman walks past a campaign poster for the United Russia party ahead of the upcoming parliamentary election in Krasnoyarsk, Russia.

MOSCOW – Russians are set to go to the polls to elect a new Lower House of Parliament for the first time since President Vladimir Putin ordered the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

There’s little doubt about what will be the broad outcome of the Sept 18 to Sept 20 vote as the Kremlin maintains a tight control over the election campaign.

The ruling United Russia party, which presents itself as the party of Putin, faces no realistic prospect of losing the majority it has held in the State Duma for 23 years.

Nonetheless, the election will provide an indicator of the public mood at a time when ordinary Russians are increasingly feeling the economic and social consequences of Putin’s years-long war in Ukraine.

As Russia’s elections are stage-managed by the Kremlin, the upcoming vote is less a political contest for Putin and more about whether the result can be harnessed to demonstrate his regime’s resilience and cement a narrative of stability.

None of the parties running in the election are in opposition to Putin, even as some criticise the government or accuse United Russia of inaction on key issues.

Parties often tailor their campaign messages to tap voter discontent on particular issues without ever assigning blame to the president.

The Kremlin also scrutinises candidates ahead of the election to ensure only acceptable contenders make it into Parliament.

The main challenge for the Kremlin is to ensure a high turnout as voter apathy would be viewed as a signal of popular discontent.

Turnout in the 2021 election was around 52 per cent, according to the Central Election Commission. Government and local officials typically resort to what’s called the “administrative resource,” pressuring state sector workers and employees of major companies to go to the polls to avoid punishment.

The Kremlin will also be looking for a high level of support for United Russia to use as a vote of confidence in Putin’s leadership.

Putin isn’t officially a member of a political party but he has aligned himself more directly with United Russia than in recent years.

He attended the party’s conference in August, while United Russia has branded itself as “the party of the president” and its campaign slogans include “being for Putin is the basic minimum.”

There are signs that Russians are increasingly weary of a war that is now in its fifth year and that they’re concerned about the economic consequences.

The economy is under pressure from massive government spending on the military, persistent inflation, high interest rates and low growth.

In August, Russia’s central bank cut its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 0 per cent to 1 per cent.

The war is becoming a more visible part of everyday life as Ukrainian drone attacks target Russia’s oil refineries, factories and e-commerce warehouses, as well as ports and ships in the Black Sea.

The refinery strikes have pushed up petrol prices and triggered widespread fuel shortages and rationing, meaning Russians in many areas are lining up for hours to fill their vehicles.

Putin has acknowledged that Ukraine’s strikes “inflict economic damage” but has insisted that Russia’s offensive will continue.

There are limited options for Russians to voice any desire for change.

With independent media shut down and prominent opposition figures mostly imprisoned, in exile or barred from running for office, there’s no organised political force inside Russia campaigning for an immediate halt to the war.

Harsh repression of even mild criticism of the regime and its war effort means there’s little incentive to show anything but unwavering support.

There’s no public debate over whether Putin was mistaken to start the war or of the massive casualties and economic damage that Russia has incurred.

Nor are candidates advocating for a halt to the fighting in Europe’s worst conflict since World War II on any other terms but Russia’s victory.

Instead, the parties running have made promises to raise living standards, maintain social spending and curb price increases for essential goods.

They’re also competing to present themselves as the most patriotic and supportive of veterans, focussing on issues such as social and medical benefits for soldiers who have fought in Ukraine.

Some parties have included veterans high on their list of candidates, seeking to capture support from millions of families whose relatives have fought in the military.

Russia plans to organise voting in the territories it occupies in eastern and southern Ukraine, including parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea.

Voting in these places will be tightly controlled by Russia’s security services.

The Kremlin is using this election to try to reinforce Russia’s territorial claims as it continues to wage a campaign to erase Ukraine’s presence in these regions.

He’s also laid claim to the entirety of the other four Ukrainian regions, even as his forces have never managed to fully occupy them.

The Duma possesses formal constitutional powers that include initiating and passing legislation, approving the state budget and confirming the appointment of the prime minister and members of the government.

In practice, the chamber is firmly under the Kremlin’s direction, approving Bills that are often handed down by officials and ministers with little or no detailed scrutiny.

Still, members of the Duma, known as deputies, do occasionally give a voice to public anger on issues such as the cost of living and rising prices, tightening internet restrictions and poor standards of social services.

United Russia currently holds a constitutional majority with 310 of the Duma’s 450 seats.

That means it’s been able to pass any constitutional amendment or key legislation without support from anyone else.

Russians are electing deputies to the Duma for its next five-year term.

The new Duma will be sitting when the next presidential election is due to take place in 2030, when Putin could seek a sixth term in office.

The Communist Party is the second-biggest faction in the Duma and has 56 seats right now.

Its campaign declares pride in the legacy of former Soviet Union leader Joseph Stalin and backs the war in Ukraine, as well as a return to Communist-era health and education services.

Three other parties currently hold seats: the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, the left-leaning Fair Russia Party and the New People party, which presents itself as pragmatic and business-friendly.

These four groups are collectively known as the “systemic opposition” because they’re permitted by the Kremlin to offer limited criticism, even as they very often vote with United Russia on key issues.

They effectively serve as a “safety valve” for the public to vent discontent, without challenging United Russia’s dominance.

One prominent opposition party outside Parliament, Yabloko, declared it would run an anti-war election campaign and its “for peace and freedom” slogan even called for an end to the conflict.

The Kremlin initially appeared willing to allow Yabloko on the ballot, figuring it would have a poor showing and that this would bolster the claim that Russians remain fully behind Putin’s war.

But that calculus changed and in August the Supreme Court kicked Yabloko off the ballot in response to an application from a pro-Putin nationalist party that alleged violations of election law.

One of Yabloko’s leaders was also sentenced to 11 years in prison.

The election campaign has otherwise been so lacking in drama that live televised debates in some regions were cancelled because none of the candidates showed up. BLOOMBERG