Who Could Be Trump’s Iran War Fall Guy - Newsweek

As the political fallout from the Iran war begins to rain down on President Donald Trump and his administration, attention is turning to who will ultimately accept the blame for the drawn-out conflict that helped serve the Republican Party with a stinging midterm defeat.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is adamant it won't be him. On Thursday, Hegseth said he believed conflict was a "courageous and historic effort," regardless of how American voters feel about it.

And Trump, for the moment, is standing by the Pentagon chief. The president said he had "every intention" of keeping Hegseth on, but, in a nod to potential daylight between the two, acknowledged he had received calls about the defense secretary's political future.

Trump is also reportedly fishing for advice on whether Hegseth should stay on after the president and his top officials conceded the Iran war was at least partly responsible for the Democrats retaking both the House and the Senate this week.

A total of 63 percent of voters believed the U.S. made the wrong decision in launching attacks on Iran, according to NBC exit polls published Wednesday. Nearly three quarters of Americans casting their ballot in the midterms said the war was a crucial or major factor in how they chose to vote.

The confrontation is now in its ninth month with no deal on the horizon to bring the fighting to a close, nor any agreement taking shape to limit Iran's nuclear program. The conflict, jarring with the administration's pledge to curb foreign intervention and avoid being bogged down in wars abroad, has inflated fuel prices at American pumps and squeezed the wallets of U.S. consumers.

"For the White House the question is: Who takes the fall?," said Julius van de Laar, a political strategist who worked on former President Barack Obama's election campaigns.

But rather than point the finger at Hegseth, Trump may be considering pushing out General Dan Caine, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, or Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Both military chiefs have been high-profile in the White House's war effort since the opening salvos of the U.S.-led attacks on Iran in February.

Caine or Cooper are more likely to be targeted by Trump as he searches around for somebody to blame, an unnamed source familiar with discussions taking place told The Washington Post on Wednesday.

Caine is the U.S.' top soldier, responsible for advising the president on military matters. Cooper, meanwhile, commands the troops deployed in the Middle East and manages all military operations in the area as the chief of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

Firing Caine or Cooper "is the cheap option for Trump," van de Laar told Newsweek. "It looks decisive without conceding that the war itself was the mistake."

But keeping Hegseth in place while shoving military commanders from their posts is risky. Hegseth remaining in the Pentagon while Caine departs "would not play well at all," said former Pentagon official Jim Townsend.

It's not military blood that will satiate calls for someone's head to roll, he told Newsweek. A Trump appointee would need to go, he added.

"It doesn’t look great for Hegseth," remarked Andrew Payne, a senior lecturer in foreign policy and security, focusing on the U.S., at City St George's, University of London.

"Trump prizes loyalty from others, but doesn’t exactly reciprocate," Payne told Newsweek. "So, I can certainly imagine him becoming the fall guy."

Hegseth's crusade to strip diversity initiatives from the Pentagon, as well as his sidelining of military lawyers, blocking journalists from the departments and overseeing the administration's deadly strike campaign against suspected drug vessels, drew heavy Democrat criticism and sparked calls for him to face impeachment.

But he has also alienated some Republican colleagues, who expressed concern over internal friction at the Pentagon and questioned whether Hegseth’s dismissal of senior military officials has harmed readiness.

Outgoing Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie has pledged to trigger a vote on House impeachment against Hegseth next week. Several unnamed GOP sources told CNN they now expected it to pass through the chamber as Republicans turn on Hegseth post-midterms.

Massie—notoriously critical of Hegseth—introduced eight articles of impeachment against him in September, but House Speaker Mike Johnson quickly recessed the chamber without a vote taking place, meaning Republicans did not have to pass public judgment on Hegseth's leadership of the Pentagon ahead of this week's elections.

A Democrat push in April 2026, led by Arizona Representative Yassamin Ansari, had introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth for alleged "high crimes and misdemeanors," largely relating to the Iran war.

"A disgruntled, defeated congressman along with all his Democrat allies has also dropped sham articles of impeachment against yours truly," Hegseth said in a video message filmed outside the Pentagon and posted to social media on Thursday, referring to Massie. "Didn't work against President Trump, and it won't work with me. You can rest assured of that."

While appetite to impeach Trump is thought to be low among lawmakers, Hegseth could still find himself in the impeachment firing line. He is "one of the obvious objects of investigation and scrutiny by Democrats looking to claim some scalps," said Payne.

Democrat midterm wins have breathed new life into impeachment speculation but the party's control of the chambers could be better spent conducting high-profile oversight hearings, rather than impeachment trials that suck up lots of time on the House and Senate floors, one Democratic Senate aide told Newsweek last week.

Others have held out hope Trump may ultimately fire Hegseth himself, ultimately avoiding the potential airing of the administration's dirty laundry during impeachment hearings.

If Trump fired Hegseth in the "lame duck" Congress between the midterms and early January, he would still have a Republican majority in both Houses, meaning he may be able to quickly have a replacement confirmed by the Senate before the Democrats take control.

But once January 3 rolls around, wrangling for a Senate confirmation of a new Pentagon chief will morph into a "months-long public trial of the Iran war," van de Laar said.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Tony Phillips.