Who will win 2026 Emmys, and who should win – from 'The Pitt' to 'Widow's Bay' - USA Today
“The Pitt” stormed the Emmy Awards last year with three major wins, including best drama. Now comes the harder part: doing it again.
HBO Max’s medical drama returns for another shift as the most-nominated show at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, with 25 nominations and defending winners Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa positioned for another big night on Monday, Sept. 14. (NBC/Peacock 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT).
The reigning Emmy champ has company. Jean Smart and HBO's “Hacks” are back for one final awards run, while Vince Gilligan’s “Pluribus” and fellow Apple TV breakout series “Widow’s Bay” lead a new wave looking to crash the party.
Here's who will win, and who should win, in the major categories on TV's biggest night.
“The Pitt” met all the daunting expectations for Season 2 and more, with a heart-pounding and heartbreaking July 4 weekend shift at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Center. The season somehow raised the stakes without messing with the formula that made its freshman season an Emmy champion. "The Pitt" looks to be the choice of Television Academy voters, fending off an Apple TV rush from "Pluribus, "Slow Horses" and "Friends & Neighbors." GoldDerby.com pundits give overwhelming "Pitt" odds, while prediction market Kalshi gives the fan-favorite drama a 95% chance of taking the top prize.
Season 5 of “Hacks” looked like the comedy favorite after a triumphant series bow. And it’s hard not to want to give Jean Smart and company one final crowning trophy as the curtain falls on one of TV’s most acclaimed comedies, which first won the top prize in 2024.
Cue the creepy music. Quirky horror sensation “Widow’s Bay” has risen up to crash the Emmy party, turning best comedy into an increasingly lopsided two-show race. The Apple TV newcomer has all the momentum after leading last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins. Prediction market Kalshi now gives “Widow’s Bay” an 82% chance of taking the top prize.
As Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch, executive producer Noah Wyle is the tortured but unrelenting soul of “The Pitt,” carrying the weight of every patient lost while refusing to stop fighting. Robby made it onto his sabbatical motorcycle trip at season's end, and Wyle will make his second best actor trip to the awards podium in two years. (Kalshi lists Wyle's chances at 94%.)
Should win? Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Rhea Seehorn might have missed out on Emmy love over six seasons as Kim Wexler on “Better Call Saul" (two nominations, no wins). But as Carol Sturka in Vince Gilligan’s follow-up series, the actress shoulders almost every scene of “Pluribus,” playing one of the few people on Earth immune to the mysterious force that has transformed humanity into a relentlessly cheerful hive mind. This year, this show will rightfully end the shutout, even over Zendaya's final bow on "Euphoria" and Keri Russell's "The Diplomat." (Kalshi odds: 84% chance for Seehorn.)
Should win? Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Will win? Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Starring as Mayor Tom Loftis, desperately trying to solve the supernatural mystery consuming his seemingly idyllic New England town in “Widow’s Bay,” double-nominated Matthew Rhys has become the story of this Emmy season. Rhys is hilarious and deeply human as the harried mayor in a horror-comedy redux of “Jaws,” confronting mounting horrors while trying to keep his island town – and its tourist economy – afloat. The Welsh actor will waltz to the awards podium for “Widow’s Bay" (Kalshi has 96%), but not for his far darker turn in Netflix’s “The Beast in Me,” his second 2026 nomination in the drama category.
As Jean Smart walks away from the role of an already stellar career in “Hacks,” the actress deserves to take one more gold trophy with her – making it five for five glorious seasons as comedy legend Deborah Vance. Smart gave the fantastically complicated character a fitting final season – still ferocious and funny with flashes of vulnerability. Out of respect for Old School Vance, we won't even mention Kalshi. Sounds like a breakfast cereal.
