Who Will Win the Midterms? Play Our Prediction Game - Newsweek
Control of Congress will come down to a few dozen races on Tuesday, November 3, in what is ultimately a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term, even if he’s not on the ballot.
Trump’s Republicans hold both chambers by narrow margins, and the result will shape the final two years of his term as he seeks to cement MAGA’s legacy on the border, trade, foreign policy, tax, and much more besides.
Democrats see a chance to take control of one, maybe even both chambers, amid widespread economic discontent over the cost of living as Trump's Iran war drives up energy prices. The data center backlash as Trump accelerates the development of AI is another major factor in this year's contests.
Trump and those in his orbit would likely face a wave of new investigations, maybe even impeachments, and an attempt to unravel what his administration has done so far. Getting any new bills through would require a level of bipartisanship and compromise with Democrats not often seen during Trump administrations.
So where will Congress land? This interactive map lets you call those races yourself and see where your choices leave the balance of power in one of America’s most pivotal midterm elections in recent times.
Every House district, and every state with a Senate race this year, starts with a rating: solid or likely for one party, or a battleground, where the outcome is genuinely competitive.
The map opens with 37 battlegrounds in the House and nine in the Senate, and with neither party holding a majority in either chamber. Democrats start with 197 House seats to the Republicans' 201, and 45 Senate seats to their 46. A tracker at the top adds up the seats as you go and tells you which party your map puts in charge.
To play, click a district to hand it to the other party. Clicking a battleground cycles through Democrat, Republican, and back again. Each hexagon is one of the 435 House districts, drawn at equal size because a sprawling rural seat counts no more than a compact city one; positions within each state are approximate.
On a phone, tap a state to zoom in first, or choose it from the "Jump to a state" menu. The Senate tab works the same way for the 35 Senate races, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.
The political arithmetic is unforgiving. A House majority takes 218 seats, and in 2024, Republicans won 220 to the Democrats' 215. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need 51 seats to take control; Republicans can keep it with 50, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties.
A few wrinkles are built in. Several states, including Texas and California, have redrawn their House maps since the last election. And in Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn after the Democratic nominee withdrew to back him. In a closely divided Senate, an Osborn victory could leave him holding the balance of power.
Changed your mind? The Undo and Reset buttons let you backtrack. When your map is finished, the "Create your card" button turns it into an image you can download or share, with your name on it if you like.
Make your picks, then see how your Congress compares with the one voters choose in November. Share your predictions with us in the comments below or by email—subscriber.feedback@newsweek.com—we'd love to see them. Enjoy.
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