Who will win the Super Bowl? NFL experts reveal their midseason picks - USA Today

The road to Super Bowl 61 is beginning to take shape, but with nine weeks remaining in the regular season, there is still plenty of football left to be played. When the dust settles, the NFL's top teams will have their sights set on Inglewood, California, where SoFi Stadium will host the year's biggest game.

With Week 10 marking the halfway point of the 2026 NFL season, it's the perfect time to look ahead and start thinking about which team could ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Kansas City Chiefs have their eyes on another trip to the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions are still searching for that elusive championship breakthrough. Could a surprise contender emerge from the pack and make an unexpected run to the top?

The playoff picture remains far from settled, but that hasn't stopped us from making our predictions. Our USA TODAY Sports staff gathered for a roundtable to break down the contenders, identify potential sleepers and pick the team they believe will be crowned Super Bowl champions in February.

Jarrett Bell: Well, if it's Denver's destiny to win Super Bowl 61 (destiny is definitely too strong a word here), it would have to happen in a one-score game with a fourth-quarter comeback.

I mean, that's the Broncos script, right? And if they get a rematch with the 49ers after falling convincingly at San Francisco in Week 4, they won't be the same team as they have built momentum through the journey. No, that momentum doesn't apply to their slow offensive starts. That's part of the script, too. But if Sean Payton's team can keep it close..

There are enough cases to be made for why this can't happen -- the Bears, Lions and Packers from the NFC North, and on the AFC side, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Last Ride A-Rod and Joe Burrow - yet here's why it can: Denver blew its shot as the No. 1 seed last season, greatly affected by Bo Nix's broken ankle. That team remains largely intact, which includes a championship-level defense, and there may be some X-factor in getting another bite at the apple. No, the Broncos' D doesn't rank as well statistically as it did last year, but it can get a stop in the clutch (enabling those late-game rallies) and it will put heat on a QB. Then there's the home field. At the moment, Buffalo's the top seed in the AFC. To maintain that slot, the Bills will need to survive a December gauntlet that includes a Christmas showdown at Denver.

Meanwhile, the 49ers know a few things about gauntlets. And about resilience. Like every team, questions loom. Without Nick Bosa, the 49ers have lacked a consistent pass rush. Yet that hasn't prevented San Francisco from claiming a share of the NFL's best record. Neither have the injury woes wreaking havoc on the receiving corps. No, you can't question the 49ers' resilience and coach Kyle Shanahan's skill for adapting (again). Still, the 49ers have a path to hanging onto the top seed in the NFC - which might be even more valuable than hosting an NFC title game because it includes a bye week for healing.

Jacob Camenker: At the midpoint of the 2026 NFL season, the path to Super Bowl 61 feels wide open. While several contenders have emerged, no clear-cut, dominant juggernaut looks poised to be the favorite to make a championship run.

That said, some dominant units have developed across the NFL, and each of these teams has one. The Bengals have an elite offense led by Joe Burrow, who is playing at an MVP level and sports a league-best 114.8 passer rating at the season's midpoint. Meanwhile, the Vikings have the league's best defense, as Brian Flores' pressure-happy scheme has flummoxed opposing quarterbacks while allowing a league-low 14.5 points per game.

Picking these two teams may seem bold, as each has a potential weakness. For the Bengals, it is their defense, which has improved significantly over recent seasons but has still been inconsistent amid their 7-2 start to the NFL season. They recently surrendered 36 points to a struggling Tennessee Titans team, so Al Golden will need to tighten things up there for Cincinnati to avoid being exploited by upper-echelon offenses in the playoffs.

As for the Vikings, they have been one of the league's worst offenses despite their 6-2 record. They bottomed out on "Monday Night Football," when Carson Wentz posted an 8.9 passer rating in place of the injured Kyler Murray in a 23-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The Vikings decided the best way to remedy their offensive issues was to go out and trade for Kirk Cousins. The 38-year-old hasn't enjoyed much playoff success, but he should prove to be a major upgrade over what Minnesota had at quarterback before the trade deadline. If Cousins can get the Vikings' offense to an average level, that could open the door for their defense to carry them to a Super Bowl. We saw defensive teams dominate the postseason last year, so it's not far-fetched to expect Minnesota to be a tough out in the playoffs.

But at the end of the day, there will eventually be a quarterback whom the Vikings' defense can't contain. Burrow could prove to be that, thanks to his pristine accuracy.

Nick Brinkerhoff: Yours truly picked the Broncos to hoist the Lombardi Trophy before the season and I’m sticking with them to reach the big game – just with a loss this time around. On the surface, it seems insane to back the Bo Nix-led Broncos, who feel like the worst 7-2 team to ever exist. It’s ugly and it’s hard to watch, but they win. And that matters.

The Broncos have established themselves as the comeback kids of the league this season, credited with five fourth-quarter comebacks through nine weeks. They have found a running back to lean on with Jonah Coleman. Now Nix appears to be turning a corner since Sean Payton took back the playcalling. Coupled with an always steady defense and the potential for home-field advantage in the playoffs, there’s reason to Bo-Lieve.

Unfortunately for the Broncos in this experiment, they run into the 49ers – a team positioned to finally get over the hump. The roster is littered with stars and was everyone’s favorite Super Bowl pick earlier in the season. Then the Bears emerged and we all forgot what San Francisco is capable of when healthy. And remember what happened the last time a Ben Johnson-led offense ran into Kyle Shanahan in the playoffs? That’s right, the Niners beat them en route to the Super Bowl.

For all the injury issues, it’s hard to pick against San Francisco if Mike Evans is healthy when it matters most. Maybe that's a lot of ifs, but I'm a believer. The Niners already knocked off the Broncos earlier this season. It won’t reach the level of a Super Bowl 24 blowout, but the 49ers finally get back on top as the clock strikes midnight on a wild Broncos ride.

Jack McKessy: Before the season began, I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl, splitting from several of my colleagues who played it safe with the Rams. Buffalo still projects as a team good enough to win the conference, but certain concerns hold them back from finally winning the Super Bowl.

Not among those concerns is quarterback Josh Allen, who is an MVP favorite. The defense, on the other hand, is troubling. Buffalo ranks among the bottom 10 in points allowed per game (25.9). The only other team in the current playoff picture with a scoring defense in the bottom half of the NFL is the 3-5 Panthers, who lead an unpromising NFC South.

What happens when a team has a defense good enough to stop (or slow) Buffalo's excellent offense, plus an offense good enough to rip the Bills' middling defense?

Enter the Bears. Quarterback Caleb Williams has looked exceedingly comfortable in his second season with head coach Ben Johnson. Defensively, the Bears' performance since acquiring Jeffery Simmons has made it clear that a Super Bowl title is within reach. Chicago's offense ranks third in yards per game (383) and seventh in points per game (26.8), while the defense is allowing the ninth-fewest yards per game (310.9) and points per game (20.4).

In a Super Bowl clash with the Bills, the Bears should have what it takes to come out on top.

Chris Bumbaca: I’m buying the hype for these two fan bases that are championship-starved.

With Buffalo, the way this offense runs the ball tilts the balance enough in favor of Josh Allen and Co. The defense has been underwhelming as expected, but if Gregory Rousseau can find a running mate or two upfront (Michael Hoecht? T.J. Parker?) then that should give defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard enough of a shot to scheme it up. Plus with Allen on offense, scoring is baked into the equation.

The Bears, meanwhile, I could not be more in on. The defense has shown me enough over the first half of the season that it can hold up against better offenses. The addition of Jeffery Simmons should only help in that regard. But the primary reason for this pick is Ben Johnson – the play caller and the leader. His desire to win by running the ball and being the more physical team is how you win in January.

In the end, Allen and the offense are too much and the Bills finally summit the mountain.

Adam Kaufman: I’m taking the 49ers to beat the Bills in Super Bowl 61. Chalky, I know.

San Francisco is banged up, but this core has made multiple deep playoff runs. Buffalo has a tortured Super Bowl history and may have the best quarterback on the planet. I’ll take my chances with both getting there.

The Bills are 7-1 and averaging an NFL-best 32 points per game. What sold me on them getting out of the AFC, though, was a game in which they scored 23. They went into Minnesota on a Monday night, held the ball for more than 42 minutes and won by 17 against a team that entered with the NFL’s top scoring defense. Josh Allen can win a shootout, and James Cook III gives Buffalo a way to win when the game turns into a grind. That’ll travel in January.

So will San Francisco’s run game, provided the 49ers keep Christian McCaffrey fresh after a career-high in touches last season. They ran for 190 yards against the Raiders, and McCaffrey scored on the ground and through the air. Give him room and he’ll take it. Bring a safety down and Brock Purdy can make you pay off play-action. Good luck making that choice for four quarters.

I think San Francisco can give Buffalo a taste of what it did to Minnesota. Stay ahead of the chains, keep Allen on the sideline and make every possession count. Allen will have his moments. Of course he will. But I’ll take the 49ers putting together one more scoring drive in the fourth and getting Kyle Shanahan the ring he’s been chasing.

Tom Viera: History isn't on the Super Bowl runners-up side. Of the 59 teams to lose the Super Bowl, 52 (88.1%) failed to return the following season. Even more telling, just one of the last 31 runners-up made it back to the Big Game. I'm counting out the New England Patriots off the top and looking elsewhere in a stacked AFC.

The Buffalo Bills will finally make their grand return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 season. Buffalo's roster is built for the long haul, and its ability to run the ball with James Cook and Josh Allen, finishing drives with six instead of three, will be the difference. Their kryptonite through the years has been the Chiefs, but Kansas City's offense doesn't look like one that can keep pace with the MVP favorite right now.

Sure, Jacksonville presents a challenge with Trevor Lawrence looking better than ever in Liam Coen's offense, and the Jaguars' defense firing. Still, Buffalo's postseason resume will be enough to finally get over the proverbial hump. The Bills finish their regular season against the Dolphins and Jets. They should be well rested and beaming with confidence when the postseason begins.

Fans hoping for fresh blood in the Big Game get their wish. The Chicago Bears will return to the Super Bowl for the first time in two decades. Chicago's explosive, balanced offense is averaging 26.8 points per game (seventh-most in the league). The defense features impact players in their prime. Ben Johnson is challenging Caleb Williams to be great, and it has galvanized the franchise. The Bears' championship window is wide open.

Ultimately, Allen puts on the Superman cape one more time, leading a Super Bowl comeback capped by a go-ahead touchdown to former Bears wide receiver DJ Moore. The Bills finally break through in the Josh Allen era. Circle the wagons.

The Super Bowl will be held on the second Sunday in February, as it has been since the league shifted to a 17-game schedule for the 2021 NFL season. This season, the big game falls on Valentine's Day.

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