Why Akhilesh Yadav backed down from third Rajya Sabha seat bid in UP
Failure to reach the magic number, or fear of cross-voting? Speculation has erupted after Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav decided against fielding a third candidate for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha polls. This despite Akhilesh previously asserting that the party would stake its claim to the third seat. With Tuesday being the last day for filing nominations, it means all 10 UP Rajya Sabha candidates are likely to be elected unopposed.
Akhilesh himself announced this in a cryptic post. "Now our eyes are not on three but on 403," signalling the party's focus on the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly election. UP has 403 seats in the assembly.
Sources said the Samajwadi Party had purchased four nomination forms. The party was gung-ho about fielding a third candidate if it was able to get the required numbers. Akhilesh had even hinted about a "surprise candidate".
However, till Tuesday, only Ram Gopal Yadav, who is seeking a sixth Rajya Sabha term, and Reliance Industries executive Dhanraj Parimal Nathwani filed their nomination papers.
The BJP has announced eight candidates, dropping Union Ministers Hardeep Puri and BL Verma, whose terms end next month. Thus, with 10 candidates now in the fray for the 10 Rajya Sabha seats, all of them are likely to win unopposed.
But why did the Samajwadi Party abandon its plan for a third candidate despite showing initial enthusiasm?WHY DID AKHILESH YADAV NOT FIELD A THIRD CANDIDATE?
Rajya Sabha elections follow a single transferable vote system. For the upcoming polls, a candidate requires 37 first-preference votes based on the current effective strength of the assembly.
The Samajwadi Party won 111 seats in the 2022 polls. However, its tally has since fallen to 98 MLAs due to vacancies and disqualifications. This does not include the three MLAs who were expelled for cross-voting in favour of the BJP during the 2024 UP Rajya Sabha elections.
If we take Congress's two MLAs, the tally will mount to 100.
The SP will need 74 votes to comfortably secure its two seats (37x2=74). This leaves it with a surplus of 26 votes. Now, to win the third seat, it would need at least 11 additional votes. This means, additional votes from outside the SP-Congress camp.
It would have brought cross-voting into the calculations, and potentially open the door for the BJP to target independent MLAs and disgruntled SP legislators. It seems Akhilesh wanted to avoid such a situation ahead of the 2027 assembly polls.
A Samajwadi Party MLA acknowledged that signatures of some legislators had been obtained on blank nomination forms, ostensibly to be used as proposers if the party fielded a third candidate.COULD SP HAVE REACHED THE MAGIC NUMBER?
The party was hopeful of securing the support of three Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) MLAs. Even if the rebel MLAs who were expelled had returned, the tally would have surged to 32.
But even that would have left the SP short by six votes.
Akhilesh had also appealed to the rebel MLAs to bury their differences and unite to stop the BJP.
However, after the BJP announced its Rajya Sabha candidates, three rebel MLAs met Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, signalling that they were unlikely to return to the Samajwadi Party.
Among the SBSP legislators, only Abbas Ansari met Akhilesh Yadav. Moreover, there was no visible split among the NDA allies.
On the other hand, the BJP and its allies - Apna Dal (S), Rashtriya Lok Dal, SBSP and Nishad Party - have 291 MLAs. With support of Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik), which has two MLAs, the alliance's strength rises to 293.
The NDA has sufficient numbers to send all eight BJP nominees to the Rajya Sabha.
With no hope of cobbling up the required numbers, Akhilesh ultimately chose not to take the third-seat gamble.- Ends
