Why Chris Alexander’s public musings about dropping out have raised eyebrows in Toronto’s mayor race - Toronto Star

The former Conservative MP for Ajax-Pickering told a forum on antisemitism that he would consider dropping out if he didn't gain more support. 

Chris Alexander said Tuesday he might consider getting out of the race to become Toronto’s next mayor if he doesn’t gain more support.

It was a public admission that most candidates would avoid at all costs while working the campaign trail. 

At an event Tuesday to discuss antisemitism, the host asked Chris Alexander, the former Conservative MP for Ajax-Pickering, if he might consider getting out of the race to become Toronto’s next mayor if he doesn’t gain more support.

“Yes,” responded Alexander, who is polling in third ahead of the Oct. 26 municipal election and was making one of his first major public appearances since announcing his run.

He quickly added that victory was still his goal. “I’m in this race to win,” he said, arguing that before he registered, incumbent Olivia Chow was on course for victory, and he intended to highlight important issues, such as hate crimes and public safety, that otherwise might have been overlooked.

In the days since Alexander’s comment his team has insisted that he’s running a serious campaign that is gaining momentum. Still, his public musings about dropping out — which came as the campaign enters its crucial post-Labour Day stretch — have raised eyebrows about what some observers already considered his unorthodox bid for Toronto’s top job. 

It’s “unusual” for a mayoral hopeful to concede at this stage they might bow out, according to veteran strategist Tom Allison.

“Candidates don’t do that, and for very good reason.”

Allison, who managed Toronto mayoral campaigns for John Tory and Ana Bailão, said that Alexander talking about potentially ending his campaign will make it harder for him to excite voters and raise money, a serious hinderance in a race where successful candidates can collect upwards of $2 million.

Alexander was already facing an uphill battle to overtake his rivals, and doesn’t have much time. A Sept. 9 poll by Liaison Strategies showed he had the support of 10 per cent of decided and leaning voters. Chow was in the lead with about 50 per cent and Brad Bradford, the councillor for Beaches—East York, was in second with 39 per cent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Still, Alexander’s remark was in keeping with what has been the candidate’s unconventional approach to campaigning, according to Allison, who is chairing Bonnie Crombie’s 2026 Mississauga mayoral run. 

After Alexander's surprise entry into the race on July 29, he initially held few public appearances or media availabilities, despite his evident need to boost his name recognition, and there's little sign so far of his campaign spending money, Allison said.

Commentators have also noted that in the weeks after signing up, Alexander, a former diplomat, continued to make social media posts about foreign affairs rather than promoting his ideas for Toronto.

“I’m not sure that Chris Alexander and his campaign really stand up to a lot of scrutiny if one was trying to figure out if it’s a serious effort,” Allison said.

Alexander rejects the idea his run isn’t serious. “If political insiders see this (campaign) as different, they are right, because it absolutely is different and has to be,” he said in a statement that argued the two frontrunners aren’t up to the job.

He said his comment about dropping out was “to a specific audience” about a single issue — antisemitism — and he meant that if voters decide someone else would better tackle that problem, “I will bow out.” He pointed out that he had made a similar remark in an interview before he registered. 

Alexander has prior experience in claiming his political statements have been misconstrued. He argues that the blowback he received for championing a “barbaric cultural practices” hotline in the 2015 federal election was the result of the proposal being “brutally misrepresented” by critics, and the Conservative campaign failing to correct the record.

But he argued that until he got involved Toronto was “on track for another low-energy, low-turnout election that would mean more crises” for the city.

Bradford placed eighth in the 2023 mayoral byelection with less than two per cent of the vote and he “cannot beat Chow,” Alexander said. “That is why I am in this race. It’s why I’m staying in the race. This city deserves a proper plan and a mayor to deliver it.” 

Alexander’s candidacy is seen as posing a particular problem for Bradford, who is running a centre-right campaign against the progressive Chow. The former Conservative cabinet minister has been expected to eat into Bradford’s support on the right side of the spectrum. 

That’s led to speculation that Alexander may have been encouraged to run by someone trying to derail Bradford’s bid. Former Tory adviser Nick Kouvalis, who is on record opposing Bradford’s campaign and has a reputation for Machiavellian tactics, has been at the centre of those rumours. His polling firm included Alexander’s name in a survey about mayoral candidates in early July, weeks before Alexander registered.

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Kouvalis hasn’t disclosed who commissioned the poll, but says he wasn’t behind Alexander’s bid. “I have nothing to do with this,” he told the Star this week.

Tory has said he’s not involved in any campaign, and Alexander said neither Tory nor Kouvalis played a role in his decision to run. 

As the race heats up, Bradford has largely attempted to avoid giving Alexander’s campaign any oxygen and is attempting to frame the election as a binary choice between himself and Chow. 

“There are two clear choices on Oct. 26: more of the same, or choosing change, real change, real results. That’s what our campaign’s all about,” Bradford said at a press conference Thursday to announce a public safety policy.

While Alexander’s team says they have been receiving calls asking them to step aside in favour of Bradford, the councillor said that neither he nor his team are pressuring Alexander to drop out. “I don’t even have the guy’s phone number,” Bradford said. 

Asked whether Chow wants Alexander to stay in the race, her campaign spokesperson Zeus Eden said Toronto is the largest municipal government in Canada and “it’s important for voters to have options that best represent them.” 

If Alexander does decide to end his campaign, his name will still be on the ballot this fall. The deadline for candidates to formally withdraw was Aug. 21. There are a total of 53 people running for mayor.

Ben Spurr is the Star's city hall bureau chief, based in Toronto. Reach him by email at bspurr@thestar.ca or follow him on Twitter: @BenSpurr.