Why Conservatives are bracing for a bitter byelection fight in a riding they’ve held for 18 years - Toronto Star

An independent candidate is one reason Conservatives express concern about the Brantford—Brant South vote Dec. 7.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears with Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis at a rally in Brantford, Ont., on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026. Davis will run for the Conservatives in a byelection in the coming months. 

OTTAWA — After a year-and-a-half marked by defections, resignations and sagging poll numbers, Pierre Poilievre is staring down yet another challenge. 

Can the Conservatives hold onto a seat that his party has held for the past 18 years? 

That question became a reality after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced voters in Brantford—Brant South would be going to the polls in a byelection on Dec. 7, along with Canadians in five other ridings left vacant this year. 

With five weeks left to go, Conservatives are bracing for that race in southern Ontario to be a fight. It is also being watched closely by Conservative MPs, some of whom — speaking on a background basis to the Star in order to speak freely — anticipate the party could be dealt a loss, amid concerns about its prospects in seats across Ontario, a province that is key to any path toward forming government. 

Others, speaking on the record, were less pessimistic, but nevertheless cautious about its chances. 

“We’ll have to wait and see,” Ben Lobb, the Ontario MP for Huron—Bruce, told the Star on Monday. “It doesn’t make it any easier with Dave Carrol running as an Independent, so we’ll have to wait and see.”

Carrol is a local pastor and longtime member of the riding’s local Conservative association who initially planned on running for the nomination to be the candidate to replace Larry Brock, whose endorsement he earned. Brock, well known for his tough-on-crime stance, resigned as MP in September. 

No contest among Conservatives ever happened, however, as Poilievre decided to forgo a nomination race to appoint Brantford’s now-former mayor, Kevin Davis — a decision that helped spur Carrol’s decision to go it alone.

He is being aided by Phil McColeman, the former Conservative MP who objected to the party’s decision to hand-pick a candidate, saying in his endorsement of Carrol that its local grassroots “were ignored and democratic process thrown under the bus” by the party’s decision.

The Liberal candidate, Joy O’Donnell, who heads up the chamber of commerce for Brantford-Brant, was also hand-picked. She was announced as the candidate Saturday, one day before the byelection was called.

Poilievre’s party has defended Davis’s appointment, which came a month earlier, as letting it have a candidate “ready to hit the ground running,” and pointed to other Conservatives, like Brock’s former campaign manager and the riding association’s president as backing the decision.

However, the fact that Carrol — whose membership the party has revoked — is now running has triggered concerns about splitting the vote. And should Davis lose under those circumstances, some MPs and those within the wider party suggest Poilievre will be the one to wear it. 

Others dismiss wading into hypotheticals. “If, if, if,” said Gérard Deltell, a prominent Conservative Quebec MP. 

For Dan Robertson, a Conservative strategist who worked under Erin O’Toole and before that for former prime minister Stephen Harper, the party facing whether it can hold onto what has been a safe Ontario seat is symptomatic of the larger predicament in which it finds itself. 

He suggests that what Poilievre needs to demonstrate is an ability to grow. “Hanging on to safe seats is not winning.” 

Among issues Robertson points to is recent filings to Elections Canada that showed the Liberals out-fundraised the Conservatives in the most recent quarter, an anomaly between the two federal parties, with the Tories historically always having that edge. 

Asked about that flip in a press conference on Sunday, Poilievre dismissed the shift as anything more than Carney “using the corporate power brokers that he’s paying off with countless billions of your tax dollars.” 

With Conservatives bracing for Brantford to be a fight, lists have already been drawn up of MPs heading into that riding to help knock on doors, with some dispatched this past weekend. Poilievre himself has been there numerous times since Brock announced his plans to resign, with those who have been on the ground noting that although some voters are unhappy about the lack of a nomination contest, they do not want to see the seat flip to the Liberals. 

One Ontario MP, who did not want to speak on the record, told the Star that they were “encouraged at the doors.” 

“Blue doors are still blue. Red doors are still red,” added Matt Strauss, Conservative MP for Kitchener South—Hespeler. 

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Stephanie Taylor is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Reach her via email: staylor@thestar.ca