Why escalation is central to Iran's war strategy
President Trump chose the day, date and time to start the war with Iran, but he has no control over when it will end. Tehran will decide how long the war lasts. Since the start of this month, Iran has escalated the conflict with attacks on US ships and bases. It has announced plans to extend its control over shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Houthi militia allies in Yemen have also escalated, inflicting major setbacks on Saudi Arabia by seizing Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and capturing the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha. A drone attack by suspected Iran-backed militias from Iraq on Friday forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its East-West pipeline, pushing oil prices to USD 110 per barrel.
Trump believes the escalation is intended to influence the US midterm elections, telling reporters on Wednesday that the war will end after the elections in November. It’s not the first time Trump has expressed hope that the war is about to end. Even his top advisers don’t believe an end is coming anytime soon. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other senior officials told him the same day that the war could drag on for the rest of his term, according to The Wall Street Journal. Iran appears in no hurry to fulfil Trump’s wish for a quick end to the conflict. The president and his team will recall that Tehran didn’t release American hostages taken after the 1979 Islamic Revolution until Jimmy Carter was out of office in January 1980.
Iran’s recent attacks on US forces in the Middle East and advances by its Houthi allies suggest greater confidence and calculation. Earlier this month, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, said that “the rules of conflict have changed. The Americans must understand that the era of proportional responses is over.” He warned that any aggression against Iran’s interests from now on would be met with “a faster, heavier and more painful response.” In conflicts, warring parties often use such language against each other. Trump has often used inflammatory language against Iran. But recent Iranian attacks on US forces mark a new level of aggression.
Iran’s forces have launched missiles at warships, including an aircraft carrier, directly targeting the US Navy in a manner not seen since the start of the war. It is reported to have used manoeuvrable warheads, which hit targets more accurately, with obvious assistance from Russia and China. US retaliation has not deterred Iran’s forces. They have responded with further attacks, targeting both the US Navy and Air Force, and even captured a US submarine on a secret mission to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, Iran again struck a military base in Jordan, damaging a number of US military jets, according to CBS News and Reuters.
In one of its many miscalculations about Iran, the Trump administration believed the Islamic regime had been held back technologically by tough US sanctions. In fact, its missile and drone factories are still operating despite heavy bombardments by the US and Israel. It has resumed producing ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, eroding what the US and Israel have touted as a major achievement of the war, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, citing American officials.
Iran has even tried to use American technology to attack US targets. The AI giant Anthropic said that Iran used its American-developed artificial intelligence model to target US ships. An Iranian-linked group compiled information from ship and aircraft transponders, military photographs and commercial satellite imagery to track American warships and identify vulnerabilities in their ship-borne communications, according to a threat intelligence report by Anthropic published on Friday. The company added, however, that it disrupted the plot.NEW EXCLUSION ZONE
Earlier this month, Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced that Iran would establish a new “prohibited zone” outside the Strait of Hormuz. The zone would begin at the US blockade line and extend into parts of the Persian Gulf. He also claimed that Iran had, for the first time, tested an anti-ship missile directly over a US warship. Another member of the National Security Council, Ebrahim Rezaei, has claimed that Iranian missiles have become more advanced and intelligent than they were a year ago, thereby increasing their ability to strike US warships.
These statements and actions suggest a strategic shift in Iran’s posture, indicating plans to attack US ships beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The move is primarily intended to maintain Iran’s leverage over Hormuz and defy US pressure. The aim is to increase the cost for tankers passing through the strait under US naval escort and to warn them that they may not be safe. Repeated assaults on American forces in Jordan, which borders Israel, are also deliberate. It’s also a message to Israel that Iran is ready to launch an attack on the Jewish state, which is going to the polls next month. Tehran fears that the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu may order a new bombing of Iran to influence his election.THE HOUTHIS ESCALATION
The escalation by Iran’s Yemen-based proxy, the Houthis, against Saudi Arabia also appears to be part of a broader Iranian military plan to increase pressure on the US and its allies and to restrict global oil supplies. Last Tuesday, the Houthis launched an attack on southern Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people. Saudi retaliation prompted further attacks by the Houthis. Pakistan, which has a defence pact with the Saudis and has its military deployed there, could do no more than issue a warning to Iran on the Kingdom’s behalf.
Since then, the Houthis have captured Perin Island and the port city of Mokha in Yemen, near the Bab-al-Mandeb chokepoint in the Red Sea, through which Saudi Arabia has been supplying most of its oil since the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis have also reportedly seized another island in the area, further expanding their control of the region. All this is happening despite the Pakistani military presence in Saudi Arabia and US military advisors there. A group of Iranian Revolutionary Guards is reportedly present with the Houthis in Yemen, suggesting a wider military plan is underway. The Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler of the country, Mohammed bin Salman, has urged Trump to take military action against the Houthis.advertisementESCALATE BEFORE IT'S TOO LATEIran’s economy is undoubtedly in deep trouble. Even before the war, it faced high inflation, sluggish growth, and rising unemployment. The war worsened the situation, and Trump’s blockade of Iran’s ports has further squeezed the economy. Iran’s GDP is set to contract by 5.4% this year, after shrinking by less than half that over the previous 12 months, according to the International Monetary Fund. Year-on-year inflation climbed from 52.6% in December 2025 to 88.6% by the start of the summer. The country’s currency, the rial, has hit a record low of more than two million to the dollar. Iran’s hardline rulers want to escalate before the economic pain becomes unbearable.
Iran also has an eye on the US and world economy. The more pain it can inflict, the less popular Trump would become. The latest actions by the Iranian military, its allies, the Houthis and the Iraqi militia have already increased oil prices to the highest level since May. In the US, petrol prices are now USD 4.30 a gallon, 44% higher since the war. Diesel prices have jumped to more than USD 6 per gallon, a 60% rise since the war. Fuel prices are a sensitive political issue in the US and will hurt Trump’s Republican candidates in the November elections.DWINDLING US OPTIONS
There is a sense among Iran’s military strategists and generals that the US and Israel could restart a full-scale war after their elections. Thus, the escalation is also a pre-emptive move against potential new attacks. Multiple reports now say the US military has depleted stocks of key air defence weapons, including ballistic missile interceptors. Patriot stockpiles have been depleted by two-thirds, and the THAAD missile inventory has been reduced by half. Low inventories of long-range offensive missiles, such as the ATACM and PRSM, are also a major concern. Iran is well aware of this and wants to force the US to use more of the remaining missiles and defence systems, so that Trump will find it even more difficult to resume a full-scale military operation after the mid-term elections.
Iran’s regime also appears to be using the military escalation to divert attention from its activities at its nuclear sites. The UN nuclear watchdog has reported activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a major underground facility. Western countries have warned of new UN sanctions over this, but China and Russia have said they would oppose the move. Trump has warned of “hitting Iran very hard”, but Iran seems to believe it can call his bluff. This poses an even greater challenge for Trump. There are already growing calls within Iran to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This was unthinkable before Trump joined Netanyahu in launching the war on Iran.- EndsNaresh Kaushik is a former editor at the BBC and Associated Press. He is based in London.Published By: Priyanka KumariPublished On: Sep 14, 2026 16:01 IST
